Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) - Opening Order Flow; Vol Jump

WSM is trading 30.89, up $2.05 with IV30™ 6.9% on a rising stock price. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

The company has traded over 18,000 options in the first hour on total daily average option volume of just 2,294. Calls are trading on a 10:1 ratio relative to puts. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (click either image to enlarge).

The Options Tab (click to enlarge) illustrates that the May 35, May 30 and Jun 35 calls respectively are the most active. Each has traded significantly over its OI (open interest) indicating that the trades are opening. Most of these orders are purchases (I checked).

Note that over 12,000 calls have traded in May in an hour of trading on total daily average option volume of just 2,294.

The Skew Tab snap is included (click to enlarge). It's bending upward rather than down (i.e. it's not "normal" shaped). I have highlighted the May 35 calls. You can see that the Jun 35 calls have yet to react as steeply; the May 35 calls are 4 vol points higher than the Jun 35 calls (39 vs 43). The June 40 calls now are bending upward trading at 41 vol. This means that vol is increasing as the stock goes up - another "unusual" occurrence. To read why skew exists and how it's shape is defined you can Click Here.

Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (click to enlarge). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference.

You can see the recent run up in stock (like the entire market). You can also see that yesterday was another day with substantial opening call buying from the green colored volume bar at the bottom. This is the second day in a row opening call buying has been predominant.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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