Thursday, April 8, 2010

People's United (PBCT) - Option Trades into Earnings

PBCT is trading 16.37, up 1.2% with IV30™ down 14.6%. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

The company has traded over 11,000 options on total daily average option volume of just 629. The calls are trading on a 34:1 ratio to puts with bulk of trading in the Aug 17.5 calls (purchases). The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (click either image to enlarge).

The Options Tab (click to enlarge) clearly illustrates where the trading is happening. The OI at the open on that line was just 4,600. These are substantially opening trades.

Note that PBCT has earnings Thursday Apr 15 AMC. It's one of those fun occurrences when earnings occur on expiration - i.e. on Thursday, the options will be only earnings vol. We find out Friday what happens. The Earnings & Dividends Tab is included below.

Note that the front month straddles for the last two cycles - 10-15-2009 and 1-21-2009 went up the day after earnings even though vol crushed. In other words, the underlying moved more than vol predicted (up in Oct and down in Jan). For the two earnings periods prior to those (4-16-2009 and 7-16-2009) vol was pretty fair - i.e. the straddles didn't move very much so the vol crush was offset almost perfectly with the stock move.

This could be an interesting one to watch, especially if it creeps up closer to 17. The 17.5 calls could be in play...

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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