Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-13-12

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Monday, March 12, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-12-12

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Friday, March 9, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-9-12

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Thursday, March 8, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-8-12

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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-7-12

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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-6-12

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Monday, March 5, 2012

Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-5-12

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Friday, March 2, 2012

Zynga (ZNGA) - Stock Hits All-time High; Vol Pops

ZNGA is trading $14.93, up 3.1% with IV30™ up 12.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Zynga Inc. (Zynga), formerly Presidio Media LLC, is a social game developer with 232 million average monthly active users (MAUs) in 166 countries. The Company’s games are accessible on Facebook, other social networks and mobile platforms to players globally, wherever and whenever they want.

ZNGA stock just came up on a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for calendar spreads between the front two months.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 GTE 8
Average Option Volume GTE 1,000
Industry isNot Bio-tech
Days After Earnings GTE 5 LTE 70
Sigma1, Sigma2 GTE 1

The snapshot of the scan is included (below) in case you want to build it yourself in Livevol® Pro.



The goal with this scan is to identify back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 8 vol points. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated front month vol simply because earnings are approaching.

Let's start with the Skew Tab to visualize the calendar vol diff.



We can see the vol diff that has opened up between the front and the two back months. The front expiry also exhibits a parabolic skew -- both the upside and downside OTM options are more expensive than the ATM reflecting "evenly likely" two-tailed risk.

Now we can turn to the Charts Tab (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20 - blue vs HV180 - pink).



ZNGA underlying has breached a new all-time high (should it close here). At the same time, the implied was falling... until today where it has popped. The vol comps are:

IV30™: 76.93%
HV20™: 109.41%
HV180™: 83.04%

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



We can see the vol diff from Mar to Apr is about 8 vol points.

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Weatherford Int'l (WFT) - Control Deficiencies and Delayed Filing Push Vol

WFT is trading $17.05, up 3.4% with IV30™ up 15.5%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Weatherford International Ltd. (Weatherford) is a provider of equipment and services used in the drilling, evaluation, completion, production and intervention of oil and natural gas wells.

This is a vol note -- depressed vol popping on the day with a calendar vol diff opening up. There is some news -- it's a bit scary:

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Weatherford files to delay its 10-K

As previously reported, the Company has not remediated its previously disclosed material weakness in internal control over financial reporting relating to current taxes payable, certain deferred tax assets and liabilities, reserves for uncertain tax positions, and current and deferred income tax expense.

Source: Provided by Briefing.com (www.briefing.com)
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Tricky...

Let's start with the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the drop off of earnings just couple of weeks ago. On 2-17-2012 the stock closed at $17.59 (the day before earnings). Although the stock fell immediately following the release, the stock is now just below that initial level -- so a nice recovery. On the vol side we can see that the implied has fallen off of earnings (expected behavior) to below 40%.

The 52 wk range in IV30™ is [30.47%, 80.38%], so as of yesterday, that put implied in the 17th percentile (annual). As of today's vol pop, the implied is in the 29th percentile.  It is a bit odd that the vol is still well below the median given the news, so apparently, it's not a big deal?

Let's turn to the Skew Tab.



We can see how elevated the front expiry is to the back two. There's also a notable upside skew in the Mar options -- the Mar 19 and 20 calls increase in vol relative to the ATM. A fairly large vol diff has opened up between the front month and the back two.

I've included the Skew Tab from yesterday, below.



We can see that the front was in fact right about even with Apr and depressed relative to May just yesterday. This delayed filing stuff is pushing vol (read: risk) in the near-term.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.



Mar, Apr and May are priced to 50.99%, 42.81% and 44.58%, respectively.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-2-12

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Thursday, March 1, 2012

Monster Worldwide (MWW) - Vol Explodes, Stock Spikes on CEO Comments

MWW is trading $8.05, up 16.0% with IV30™ up 77.6%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Monster Worldwide, Inc. (Monster Worldwide) is parent company of Monster, the global online employment solution. With a presence in approximately 55 countries globally, including key markets in North America, Europe, South America and the Asia-Pacific region, Monster offers online recruiting solutions.

This is a vol and order flow note on some news from the CEO. Here we go:

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Monster Worldwide Inc. (MWW), the online recruiting service, rose as much as 12 percent after Chief Executive Officer Salvatore Iannuzzi said he’s considering “strategic alternatives” to boost shareholder value.

“Our shareholders deserve a better return,” Iannuzzi said at a Robert W. Baird & Co. conference in Boston. Before today, shares of the New York-based company had tumbled 59 percent in the past 12 months.

Iannuzzi has already embarked on a cost-cutting plan, an effort to cope with the slow economic recovery and competition from sites such as LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) that offer cheaper ways to recruit employees. Monster said earlier this year that it would eliminate about 400 jobs, or 7 percent of its workforce, after economic turmoil in Europe caused clients to curb their use of the job-search website.

Source:Monster Worldwide Advances After CEO’s ‘Strategic’ Comment: New York Mover

---

Umm... OK...

Let's start with the order flow. The company has traded over 35,000 contracts on total daily average option volume of just 1,137. Calls have traded on an 8.2:1 ratio to puts with the Mar 8 calls having traded over 17,000x. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (below).





The Options Tab (below) illustrates that those Mar 8 calls are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). When looking down the entire option chain for MWW, I don't see any OI larger than 4,539 (Mar 7 calls), so the size is notable for his company. The calls have traded as low as $0.05 and as high as $0.90 today. The flow is actually ambiguous as to the side, but the circumstantial evidence would point to purchases as vol his risen.



The Skew Tab snap (below) illustrates the vols by strike by month.



Check out how elevated Mar has become relative to the back two months. As a reference, I have included the skew chart from yesterday, below.



That red dot is Mar (it's just a single point b/c only one OTM options had a bid). Today, well, there are lots of them. Looking back to the Options Tab (across the top), we can see Mar vol is up 44.5 vol points while Apr and Jun are up 24.3 and 14.8 vol points, respectively. So, in English, the front is reacting the most.

Finally, the Charts Tab (six months) is below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



I've highlighted the stock pop today. As of this writing, the underlying is only up $0.71. The day range is rather large -- [$6.88, $8.59]. The vol spike is unreal. The ATM straddle was worth ~ $0.50 yesterday (on close). Today, it's worth more than $1.00.

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Riverbed Technology (RVBD) - Depressed Vol Nears Annual Low

RVBD is trading $28.59, up 0.4% with IV30™ unched. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Riverbed) has developed solutions to the fundamental problems associated with information technology (IT) performance across wide area networks (WANs).

This is a vol note – specifically depressed implied. Let’s turn to the Charts Tab (six months), below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side, we can see the abrupt drop off of the last earning release. The stock fell from $29.92 to $24.45 or an 18.3% drop. Since then, the stock has risen from that below $25 level to now back over $28.50. On the vol side, we can see the implied has fallen since earnings (as expected), an d remained depressed since then. The 52 wk range in IV30™ for RVBD is [4062%, 96.71%]. The current level put sit in the 5th percentile (annual). It’s this level of the implied that caught my attention.

Let’s turn to the Skew Tab to examine the line-by-line and month-to-month vols.



We can see that the front expiry (Mar) is in fact the lowest of the three front months, with Apr (the middle) the highest. For the last two years earnings for RVBD have been on 4-22-1010 and 4-19-2011. Apr options expire this year on 4-20-2012. So, in English, the earnings date as of right now is ambiguous as to which options cycle it falls into. Tricky…

Finally, let’s turn to the Options Tab, for completeness.



I wrote about this one for TheStreet (OptionsProfits), so no specific trade analysis here. Across the top of the Tab we can see 35.75%, 46.62% and 46.67% vols for Mar, Apr and Jun, respectively. That vol in Jun is tasty since we know it has an earnings event embedded. But, if earnings are in Apr, it might be more tasty to examine the Apr options for less premium.


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Pre-Market/Post Market: 3-1-12

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