Tibco Software (TIBX) - Elevated Vol as Stock Rises

TIBX is trading $26.37, up 0.8% with IV30™ up 6.8%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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TIBCO Software Inc. (TIBCO) is an independent provider of middleware and infrastructure software. This stock caught my attention because the vol is elevated, but it’s actually up today. It showed up on the real-time custom scan that hunts for high vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $7 and LTE $70
IV30™ - HV20 LTE 10
HV180 - IV30™ LTE -8
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
Industry isNot Bio-tech
Days After Earnings GTE 10 and LTE 60

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated both to the recent stock movement (HV20) and the long term trend in stock movement (HV180). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), want to avoid bio-techs (and their crazy vol) and make sure I'm not selling elevated IV30™ simply because earnings are approaching.

The TIBX Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20 - blue vs HV180 - pink).



We can see:
IV30™: 47.68
HV20: 38.55
HV180: 35.15

So, IV30™ is elevated relative to the short-term and long-term realized movement of the stock. The next earnings release is due out after the Sep options cycle, so the elevated vol isn’t earnings related as far a I can tell.

Let’s turn to the Skew Tab to examine the line-by-line and month-to-month vols.



We can see Aug rests above Sep for most strikes other than the 28 and 29 lines. It’s the vol diff to the downside that I’m most interested in.

Let's look to the Options Tab (below) for completeness.



I wrote about this one for TheStreet.com (OptionsProfits) so no specific trade analysis here. But, I like the elevated vol and the fact that the stock is up today as vol is rising. Makes for some interesting analysis.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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