Monday, May 3, 2010

*UPDATE: Administaff (ASF) - Earnings Winner on "Sneaky Call Buyer"

ASF is trading 26.60, up 20% ($4.46) on earnings released this morning. The LIVEVOL™ Pro Summary is below.

I first wrote about ASF on Tuesday of last week as a call buyer "snuck" in with small orders but several times. You can read the first blog here below.
The first blog: Click Here ("Sneaky Call Buyer")

The May 25 calls were the action, about 4,500 were purchased for $0.45. The Options Tab snap is included (click to enlarge).

You can see the May 25 calls are now worth $1.90. That's 4500x100x($1.90-$0.45) = $834,750 dollar win on a ~$200,000 bet.

One more interesting note: The Charts Tab (6 months) is below (click to enlarge). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference.

You can see for the last two consecutive earnings this stock has gapped considerably (-25% two cycles ago, and +20% this time). It might be time to write this one down and see if the order flow gives a similar tip next time.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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