Monday, September 30, 2013
Yahoo! (YHOO) - Stock in Play; Volatility Hits Annual High; Are there Two Volatility Events Coming?
YHOO is trading $33.44, down 0.33% with IV30™ down 0.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.
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Yahoo! Inc. (Yahoo!) is a digital media company. Through the Company’s technology and insights, Yahoo! delivers digital content and experiences, across devices and globally. Yahoo!provides online properties and services (Yahoo! Properties) to users, as well as a range of marketing services designed to reach and connect with those users on Yahoo! and through a distribution network of third-party entities (Affiliates).
I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols. Note that YHOO is in the 99th percentile, so essentially an annual high.
Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
The two-year YHOO Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).
On the stock side we can see two phenomena, both equally abrupt.
(1) For the first year of the chart, YHOO stock was simply stuck in neutral. There were takeover rumors and new top executives and all that “stuff,” but the stock price didn’t budge.
(2) Over the last year, the stock has exploded from $15.82 to now above $33, so more than a double. Incredible considering the vultures were hovering not too long ago.
Before we look myopically at IV30™ over the last year, check out the IV30™ for the first part of the chart. We can see that as the stock stayed in “nowhere” land, the implied did begin (and continue) to fall. The IV30™ was over 73% two-years ago, and it’s now down to the 40% range. But, that long-term view does miss an important recent trend.
Let’s turn to the one-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.
We can see that YHOO implied has spiked of late. There is an earnings release coming out in a few weeks (give or take), so a part of that vol increase is simply a reflection of the risk in the earnings event. But, a part of that risk is something else. YHOO is already at an annual high in IV30™ and we have quite some time before earnings (double check that). The vol story gets even more interesting when we look at the skew.
The Skew Tab is included below.
Two things to note here:
(1) The ATM vols for Oct and Nov are basically right on top of each other (the yellow and green curves are touching). This either means that the date of earnings is still ambiguous as to whether it will be in Oct or Nov, or there is another volatility event in Oct or Nov (whichever does not have earnings). Pretty cool.
(2) I note that both Oct and Nov have a parabolic skew, so the risk in YHOO that is reflected y the option market is two-sided – both downside risk and upside potential. Not too shabby for YHOO to reflect upside potential give a 100% return in the last year.
Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).
Across the top I note that Oct vol is priced to 40.67% while Nov vol is priced to 40.1%. That reads as ambiguity to the earnings date, or as I said before, a second volatility event. YHOO is in play.
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Thursday, September 26, 2013
Op-Ed: Fukushima Nuclear Disaster - The Lies They've Told; 15 Things You Should Know; And How This Could Be a Global Killer
This is opposite the editorial page, just Ophir Gottlieb's opinion and research (not Livevol). But every once in a while I write a story that goes well beyond the scope of just finance because this world goes well beyond finance. So, to my 780,000+ readers, I hope this is helpful and insightful. It is not intended to be fear mongering, it's the best I can do using "Just the facts Ma'am" while offering opinions now and again. Ultimately, the facts are warped, hidden and manipulated for whatever agenda / propoganda is needed. So, this is the best I could do to inform you of what might be the single most important event in our lifetimes.
NB: I have listed the contact information for every member in the house of representatives for every state and territory at the end of this article.
I will start with "15 Things You Should Know" about the disaster. Facts, figures and opinions I have compiled from various sources. I hope you can read the 15 highlights, at the very least.
But, there's one opinion I will share up front, the nuclear power plant disaster (it is a disaster) needs your attention. And here's why...
Ophir says: If all you can (or want) to read is the 'highlights' section (below), that's OK, I hope it's helpful. But there are more details, and they will affect your life in some way. It's tautological. This doesn't have to be "a global killer" or whatever big, crazy, scary term we can find but, this problem is for real and tens of millions of lives are at stake.
Workers using a German-made pump to pump water from the spent fuel pool in Unit 4 at Fukushima No.1 (Dai-Ichi) nuclear power plant in the town of Okuma in Fukushima prefecture (AFP Photo)
The sources I used for this article are:
I. Fukushima apocalypse: Years of ‘duct tape fixes’ could result in ‘millions of deaths’
August 17, 2013
II. Tokyo mayor claims Japan PM lied about Fukushima
September 24, 2013
III. Let the world help at Fukushima No. 1
September 24, 2013
IV. Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (Wikipedia)
NB: Always question Wikipedia as a source -- do not necessarily take it as fact.
V. Liquidator (Chernobyl) (Wikipedia)
NB: Always question Wikipedia as a source -- do not necessarily take it as fact.
I also warn readers to the fact that a lot of the information that is spread via Facebook and Twitter is accurate, but often times two-years old. So we'll watch youtube interviews from CNN (or whatever) in which the interviewee makes statements relative to time (i.e. "In two weeks 'something will happen'...") which makes the date of the interviews particularly relevant. Note the dates of these sources above, two of them are just two days old. Also note the dates of other sources you follow. I see a lot of re-posts that people share out of concern (no malintent) but are confusing the truth.
OK, here we go with 'highlights', then some real digging:
------------------
--- Highlights ---
------------------
1. Chernobyl:
Between 1986 and 1992, it is thought between 600,000 and one million people [volunteered] in works around Chernobyl and were exposed to some level of radiation [to help contain the leak]. Fukushima is 24x the size of Chenobyl in potential radio-activity. (Sources: V., I.) Do you think we will find 24 million people to volunteer to get a year's worth of radiation in 10 minutes to help Japan?
2. Tokyo mayor claims Japan PM lied about Fukushima:
Mayor of Tokyo, Naoki Inose, has indicated that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lied to the International Olympic Committee when he reassured them that contaminated water leaking from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant were “under control.” (Source: II.)
3. The most serious complication would be anything that leads to a nuclear chain reaction: (Source: I.)
4. TEPCO Admits Failures:
TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company) admitted for the first time on October 12, 2012 that it had failed to take stronger measures to prevent disasters for fear of inviting lawsuits or protests against its nuclear plants. There are no clear plans for decommissioning the plant, but there are estimates it will take at least thirty or forty years. (Source: IV)
5. Collateral Damage:
Collateral damage will continue for decades, if not centuries, even if things stay exactly the way they are now. (Source: I.)
6. Manmade Disaster:
On 5 July 2012, the Japanese National Diet appointed The Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAIIC) submitted its inquiry report to the Japanese Diet. The Commission found the nuclear disaster was "manmade", that the direct causes of the accident were all foreseeable prior to March 11, 2011. The report also found that the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was incapable of withstanding the earthquake and tsunami. TEPCO, the regulatory bodies (NISA and NSC) and the government body promoting the nuclear power industry (METI), all failed to correctly develop the most basic safety requirements—such as assessing the probability of damage, preparing for containing collateral damage from such a disaster, and developing evacuation plans for the public in the case of a serious radiation release. (Source: IV.)
7. The Pacific Ocean:
On July 22, 2013, more than two years after the incident, it was revealed that the plant is leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean, something long suspected by local fishermen and independent investigators. TEPCO had previously denied that this was happening and the current situation has prompted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe to order the government to step in. (Source: IV.)
8. 1976: Falsification of safety records by TEPCO:
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex was central to a falsified-records scandal that led to the departure of a number of senior executives of TEPCO. It also led to disclosures of previously unreported problems at the plant, although testimony by Dale Bridenbaugh, a lead GE designer, purports that General Electric was warned of major design flaws in 1976, resulting in the resignations of several designers who protested GE's negligence.
In 2002, TEPCO admitted it had falsified safety records at Fukushima Daiichi unit 1. As a result of the scandal and a fuel leak at Fukushima Daini, the company had to shut down all of its 17 nuclear reactors to take responsibility. A power board distributing electricity to a reactor's temperature control valves was not examined for 11 years. Inspections did not cover devices related to cooling systems, such as water pump motors and diesel generators. (Source: IV.)
9. World Leaders Must Join Together:
[A]s far as Fukushima goes, the only thing that matters now is if world leaders and experts join forces to help fix this situation. Regardless of what agendas they are trying to protect or hide, how much it will cost, the effect on Japan or the world’s economy, or what political chains this will yank.
The nuclear industry needs to come clean. If this leads to every reactor in the world being shut down, so be it. If the world governments truly care about their people and this planet, this is what needs to be done.
Renowned theoretical physicist Michio Kaku stated in an interview a few weeks after the initial accident that “TEPCO is literally hanging on by their fingernails.” They still are, and always have been. The Japanese have proven time and time again they are not capable of handling this disaster. Now we are entrusting them to execute the most dangerous fuel removal in history.
We are extremely lucky that this apocalyptic scenario hasn't happened yet, considering the state of Reactor 4. But for many, it is already too late. The initial explosions and spent fuel pool fires may have already sealed the fate of millions of people. Time will tell. Anyone who tells you otherwise is not being honest, because there is just no way to know. (Source: I.)
10. As a comparison to Chernobyl:
Chernobyl was one reactor, in a rural area, a quarter of the size of one of the reactors at Fukushima. There was no 'spent fuel pool' to worry about. (Source: I.)
At Fukushima, we have six top-floor pools all loaded with fuel that eventually will have to be removed, the most important being Reactor 4, although Reactor 3 is in pretty bad shape too. Spent fuel pools were never intended for long-term storage, they were only to assist short-term movement of fuel. Using them as a long-term storage pool is a huge mistake that has become an 'acceptable' practice and repeated at every reactor site worldwide.
11. Fuel Rods:
1,300+ fuel rods each weighing ~2/3 ton must be successfully removed (there is an alternative discussed in the details). The fuel rods are in danger every day they remain in the pool. The more variables you add to this equation, and the more time that passes, the more risk you are exposed to. Each reactor and spent fuel pool has its own set of problems, and critical failure with any of them could ultimately have the end result of an above-ground, self-sustaining nuclear reaction. It will not be known if extraction of all the fuel will even be possible, as some of it may be severely damaged, until the attempt is made to remove it. (Source: I)
12. Worst Case Scenario:
This is a terrible answer to have to give, but the worst case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse. At least the northern half of Japan would be uninhabitable, and some researchers have argued that it already is. (Source: I.)
13. Purposeful Misrepresentation by TEPCO:
An obvious attempt to downplay this disaster and its consequences have been repeated over and over again from 'experts' in the nuclear industry that also have a vested interest in their industry remaining intact. And, there has been a lot of misleading information released by TEPCO, which an hour or two of reading by a diligent reporter would have uncovered, in particular the definition of 'cold shutdown.’
Over 300 mainstream news outlets worldwide ran the erroneous 'cold shutdown' story repeatedly, which couldn't be further from the truth…[it was] yet another lie that was spun by TEPCO to placate the public, and perpetuated endlessly by the media and nuclear lobby.
Unfortunately, TEPCO waited until a severe emergency arose to finally report how bad things really are with this latest groundwater issue...if we are even being told the truth. Historically, everything TEPCO says always turns out to be much worse than they initially admit. (Sources: I., II.).
14. Cancer Rates Rising:
A screening program found that more than a third (36%) of children in Fukushima Prefecture have abnormal growths in their thyroid glands but these are not attributed to the effects of radiation. As of August 2013, there have been more than 40 children newly diagnosed with thyroid cancer and other cancers in Fukushima prefecture as a whole, but these cancers are not attributed to radiation from Fukushima, as similar rates of cancer occurred before the accident, and if Chernobyl is anything to go by the increase in thyroid cancer rates won't begin until approximately 4-5 years after the accident. However, a 2013 article in the Stars and Stripes asserted that a Japanese government study released in February of that year had found that more than 25 times as many people in the area had developed thyroid cancer compared with data from before the disaster.
15. 'Unfortunately there is no one better qualified to deal with this than the Russians, despite their own shortcomings':
I think the best chance of success is... that experts around the world drop everything they are doing to work on this problem, and have Russia either lead the containment effort or consult with them closely. They have the most experience, they have decades of data. They took their accident seriously and made a Herculean effort to contain it.
Of course we also know the Chernobyl accident was wrought with deception and lies as well, and some of that continues to this day, especially in terms of the ongoing health effects of children in the region, and monstrous birth defects. Unfortunately there is no one better qualified to deal with this than the Russians, despite their own shortcomings. Gorbachev tried to make up for his part in the cover-up of Chernobyl by opening orphanages throughout the region to deal with the affected children. (Source IV.)
---
And now, on to the details...
What (Source IV.)
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was an energy accident at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant, initiated primarily by the tsunami of the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011.The damage caused by the tsunami produced equipment failures, and without this equipment a Loss of Coolant Accident followed with nuclear meltdowns and releases of radioactive materials beginning on March 12. It is the largest nuclear disaster since the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 and the second disaster (along with Chernobyl) to measure Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale, releasing an estimated 10 to 30% of the radiation of the Chernobyl accident.
The plant comprised six separate boiling water reactors originally designed by General Electric (GE) and maintained by the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). At the time of the earthquake, reactor 4 had been de-fueled and reactors 5 and 6 were in cold shutdown for planned maintenance. Immediately after the earthquake, the remaining reactors 1–3 shut down the sustained fission reactions automatically, inserting control rods in what is termed the SCRAM, following this, emergency generators came online to power electronics and coolant systems. The tsunami arrived some 50 minutes after the initial earthquake. The 13m tsunami overwhelmed the plant's seawall, which was only 10m high,[5] quickly flooding the low-lying rooms in which the emergency generators were housed (The tsunami was photographed). The flooded diesel generators failed, cutting power to the critical pumps that must continuously circulate coolant water through a Generation II reactor for several days to keep it from melting down after shut down. After the secondary emergency pumps (run by back-up batteries) ran out, one day after the tsunami,[11] the pumps stopped and the reactors began to overheat due to the normal high radioactive decay heat produced in the first few days after nuclear reactor shutdown (smaller amounts of this heat normally continue to be released for years, but are not enough to cause fuel melting).
The Evolution of News and a Disaster (Source I.)
While the wiki article above states that the disaster has released as "estimated 10 to 30% of the radiation of the Chernobyl accident," that's not quite the whole picture.
1. The reactor that melted down at Chenobyl is 25% the size of one of the reactors in Japan (and there are six in Japan). That means the Japan situation has the potential to be 24x worse than Chernobyl relative to radiation leak. But that's hardly the end of it.
Check this out:
---
Source: I.
RT: How do the potential consequences of failure to ensure safe extraction compare to other disasters of the sort – like Chernobyl, or the 2011 Fukushima meltdown?
CC: There really is no comparison. This will be an incredibly risky operation, in the presence of an enormous amount of nuclear material in close proximity. And as we have seen in the past, one seemingly innocuous failure at the site often translates into a series of cascading failures.
'The site has been propped up with duct tape and a kick-stand for over two years'
Many of their 'fixes' are only temporary, as there are so many issues to address, and cost always seems to be an enormous factor in what gets implemented and what doesn't.
As a comparison: Chernobyl was one reactor, in a rural area, a quarter of the size of one of the reactors at Fukushima. There was no 'spent fuel pool' to worry about. Chernobyl was treated in-situ...meaning everything was pretty much left where it was while the effort to contain it was made (and very expeditiously I might add) not only above ground, but below ground.
At Fukushima, we have six top-floor pools all loaded with fuel that eventually will have to be removed, the most important being Reactor 4, although Reactor 3 is in pretty bad shape too. Spent fuel pools were never intended for long-term storage, they were only to assist short-term movement of fuel. Using them as a long-term storage pool is a huge mistake that has become an 'acceptable' practice and repeated at every reactor site worldwide.
We have three 100-ton melted fuel blobs underground, but where exactly they are located, no one knows. Whatever 'barriers' TEPCO has put in place so far have failed. Efforts to decontaminate radioactive water have failed. Robots have failed. Camera equipment and temperature gauges...failed. Decontamination of surrounding cities has failed.
'If and when the corium reaches the Tokyo aquifer, serious and expedient discussions will have to take place about evacuating 40 million people'
We have endless releases into the Pacific Ocean that will be ongoing for not only our lifetimes, but our children’s' lifetimes. We have 40 million people living in the Tokyo area nearby. We have continued releases from the underground corium that reminds us it is there occasionally with steam events and huge increases in radiation levels. Across the Pacific, we have at least two peer-reviewed scientific studies so far that have already provided evidence of increased mortality in North America, and thyroid problems in infants on the west coast states from our initial exposures.
We have increasing contamination of the food chain, through bioaccumulation and biomagnification. And a newly stated concern is the proximity of melted fuel in relation to the Tokyo aquifer that extends under the plant. If and when the corium reaches the Tokyo aquifer, serious and expedient discussions will have to take place about evacuating 40 million people from the greater metropolitan area. As impossible as this sounds, you cannot live in an area which does not have access to safe water.
The operation to begin removing fuel from such a severely damaged pool has never been attempted before. The rods are unwieldy and very heavy, each one weighing two-thirds of a ton. But it has to be done, unless there is some way to encase the entire building in concrete with the pool as it is. I don't know of anyone discussing that option, but it would seem much 'safer' than what they are about to attempt...but not without its own set of risks.
And all this collateral damage will continue for decades, if not centuries, even if things stay exactly the way they are now. But that is unlikely, as bad things happen like natural disasters and deterioration with time...earthquakes, subsidence, and corrosion, to name a few. Every day that goes by, the statistical risk increases for this apocalyptic scenario. No one can say or know how this will play out, except that millions of people will probably die even if things stay exactly as they are, and billions could die if things get any worse.
Workers spraying resin on the ground near the reactor buildings to protect the spread of radioactive substances at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant at Okuma town in Fukushima prefecture (AFP Photo)
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Here's the deal, in English. There are 1,300 fuel rods each weighing ~2/3 of a ton. Each has to be removed one at a time. Some context, then some of my statistics:
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Source: I.
Although fuel rod removal happens on a daily basis at the 430+ nuclear sites around the world, it is a very delicate procedure even under the best of circumstances. What makes fuel removal at Fukushima so dangerous and complex is that it will be attempted on a fuel pool whose integrity has been severely compromised.
There are numerous other reasons that this will be a dangerous undertaking.
- The racks inside the pool that contain this fuel were damaged by the explosion in the early days of the accident.
- Zirconium cladding which encased the rods burned when water levels dropped, but to what extent the rods have been damaged is not known, and probably won't be until removal is attempted.
- Saltwater cooling has caused corrosion of the pool walls, and probably the fuel rods and racks.
- The building is sinking.
- The cranes that normally lift the fuel were destroyed.
- Computer-guided removal will not be possible; everything will have to be done manually.
- TEPCO cannot attempt this process without humans, which will manage this enormous task while being bombarded with radiation during the extraction and casking.
- The process of removing each rod will have to be repeated over 1,300 times without incident.
- Moving damaged nuclear fuel under such complex conditions could result in a criticality if the rods come into close proximity to one another, which would then set off a chain reaction that cannot be stopped.
What could potentially happen is the contents of the pool could burn and/or explode, and the entire structure sustain further damage or collapse. This chain reaction process could be self-sustaining and go on for a long time. This is the apocalyptic scenario in a nutshell.
---
OK, so all 1,300 fuel rods need to be removed. Let's say the removal of each rod is an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) event. Here are the chances of successfully removing all 1,300 without a catastrophic event under various scenarios:
Scenario 1: The probability of removing a rod successfully is 99.9%.
Result: The probability of removing all 1,300 successfully is .999^(1300) = 27.2% (i.e. 72.7% chance of failure at least once).
The flaw in the logic:
I promised I wouldn't fear monger -- here's the (potential) flaw in that logic. The successful removal of a fuel rod probably raises the likelihood that then next fuel rod will be successfully removed due to:
1. Learned mechanics (people will learn as they go, a successful extraction likely means better learned knowledge)
2. Less "mess" (fewer fuel rods to bump into each other; if any of them touch, as I understand it, that's a catastrophe, but as each one is removed, there's a lower chance that a "touch or collision" event occurs).
But, having said all of that, add back the risks inherent in the passing of time (see above), the mitigating factors of removing a single fuel rod might in fact be erased by the fact that it will take more than a year to remove all the rods which means more than a year of potential natural disasters and worsening of the surrounding area and other reactors. Keep in mind, the process to extract the rods has not begun yet. The count is still zero removed fuel rods.
Here's some more from source #1:
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Source: I.
Even the tiniest mistake during an operation to extract over 1,300 fuel rods at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan could lead to a series of cascading failures with an apocalyptic outcome, fallout researcher Christina Consolo told RT.
Fukushima operator TEPCO wants to extract 400 tons worth of spent fuel rods stored in a pool at the plant’s damaged Reactor No. 4. The removal would have to be done manually from the top store of the damaged building in the radiation-contaminated environment.
In the worst-case scenario, a mishandled rod may go critical, resulting in an above-ground meltdown releasing radioactive fallout with no way to stop it, said Consolo, who is the founder and host of Nuked Radio. But leaving the things as they are is not an option, because statistical risk of a similarly bad outcome increases every day, she said.
---
OK, that's it for the disaster, how about a solution?
What We Need to Do
---
Source: III.
The United States successfully cleaned and decommissioned nuclear facilities at Hanford, Washington, Rocky Flats, Colorado, and Portsmouth, Ohio. Other projects are currently under way in both the U.S. and U.K.
Yet, American firms who have offered to help with issues at Fukushima have been repeatedly turned down by Tepco and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
Recently, a METI official told me that Japan could not use American technology that was used to decommission Hanford because these were military reactors used in weapons programs. Fukushima is a civilian power reactor and, hence, the technology would not be appropriate.
Fuel rods inside the core of a nuclear reactor do not know if they will be reprocessed or put into a spent fuel pool.
This type of thinking harkens back to the fallacious argument that Japanese cannot eat American beef because their intestines are different.
The cleanup of any nuclear reactor will use the same technology, regardless of what the reactor has been used for.
The consequences of the continued delay in addressing the real challenges at Fukushima have international consequences.
---
OK... So what do we do on a personal level? It's actually pretty simple. E-mail and most importantly call your congress person.
You see, there's this funny thing about elections, people like to win them. Fuck the Republican / Democrat bullshit and the debt level deadline. That's posturing shit from people who collect more money and better healthcare than 98% of the population and have more vacation days than any other job in the country. But there's one good think about their posh lifestyles... They want to keep them.
Make a call and save the world? I guess I had to say it...
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37 Bass, Karen D 408 CHOB 202-225-7084 Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
38 Sanchez, Linda D 2423 RHOB 202-225-6676 Ethics
Ways and Means
39 Royce, Ed R 2185 RHOB 202-225-4111 Foreign Affairs, Chairman
Financial Services
40 Roybal-Allard, Lucille D 2330 RHOB 202-225-1766 Appropriations
41 Takano, Mark D 1507 LHOB 202-225-2305 Science, Space, and Technology
Veterans' Affairs
42 Calvert, Ken R 2269 RHOB 202-225-1986 Appropriations
Budget
43 Waters, Maxine D 2221 RHOB 202-225-2201 Financial Services
44 Hahn, Janice D 404 CHOB 202-225-8220 Small Business
Transportation and Infrastructure
45 Campbell, John R 2331 RHOB 202-225-5611 Budget
Financial Services
46 Sanchez, Loretta D 1114 LHOB 202-225-2965 Armed Services
Homeland Security
47 Lowenthal, Alan D 515 CHOB 202-225-7924 Foreign Affairs
Natural Resources
48 Rohrabacher, Dana R 2300 RHOB 202-225-2415 Foreign Affairs
Science, Space, and Technology
49 Issa, Darrell R 2347 RHOB 202-225-3906 Oversight and Government Reform, Chairman
Judiciary
50 Hunter, Duncan D. R 223 CHOB 202-225-5672 Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
Transportation and Infrastructure
51 Vargas, Juan D 1605 LHOB 202-225-8045 Agriculture
Foreign Affairs
House Administration
52 Peters, Scott D 2410 RHOB 202-225-0508 Armed Services
Science, Space, and Technology
53 Davis, Susan D 1526 LHOB 202-225-2040 Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
Colorado
1 DeGette, Diana D 2368 RHOB 202-225-4431 Energy and Commerce
2 Polis, Jared D 1433 LHOB 202-225-2161 Education and the Workforce
Rules
3 Tipton, Scott R 218 CHOB 202-225-4761 Agriculture
Natural Resources
Small Business
4 Gardner, Cory R 213 CHOB 202-225-4676 Energy and Commerce
5 Lamborn, Doug R 2402 RHOB 202-225-4422 Armed Services
Natural Resources
Veterans' Affairs
6 Coffman, Mike R 2443 RHOB 202-225-7882 Armed Services
Small Business
Veterans' Affairs
7 Perlmutter, Ed D 1410 LHOB 202-225-2645 Financial Services
Connecticut
1 Larson, John B. D 1501 LHOB 202-225-2265 Ways and Means
2 Courtney, Joe D 2348 RHOB 202-225-2076 Agriculture
Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
3 DeLauro, Rosa L. D 2413 RHOB 202-225-3661 Appropriations
4 Himes, Jim D 119 CHOB 202-225-5541 Financial Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
5 Esty, Elizabeth D 509 CHOB 202-225-4476 Science, Space, and Technology
Transportation and Infrastructure
Delaware
At Large Carney, John D 1406 LHOB 202-225-4165 Financial Services
District of Columbia
At Large Norton, Eleanor Holmes D 2136 RHOB 202-225-8050 Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
Florida
1 Miller, Jeff R 336 CHOB 202-225-4136 Veterans' Affairs, Chairman
Armed Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
2 Southerland, Steve R 1229 LHOB 202-225-5235 Natural Resources
Transportation and Infrastructure
3 Yoho, Ted R 511 CHOB 202-225-5744 Agriculture
Foreign Affairs
4 Crenshaw, Ander R 440 CHOB 202-225-2501 Appropriations
5 Brown, Corrine D 2111 RHOB 202-225-0123 Transportation and Infrastructure
Veterans' Affairs
6 DeSantis, Ron R 427 CHOB 202-225-2706 Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
Oversight and Government Reform
7 Mica, John R 2187 RHOB 202-225-4035 Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
8 Posey, Bill R 120 CHOB 202-225-3671 Financial Services
Science, Space, and Technology
9 Grayson, Alan D 430 CHOB 202-225-9889 Foreign Affairs
Science, Space, and Technology
10 Webster, Daniel R 1039 LHOB 202-225-2176 Rules
Transportation and Infrastructure
11 Nugent, Richard R 1727 LHOB 202-225-1002 Armed Services
House Administration
Rules
12 Bilirakis, Gus M. R 2313 RHOB 202-225-5755 Energy and Commerce
Veterans' Affairs
13 Young, C.W. Bill R 2407 RHOB 202-225-5961 Appropriations
14 Castor, Kathy D 205 CHOB 202-225-3376 Budget
Energy and Commerce
15 Ross, Dennis R 229 CHOB 202-225-1252 Financial Services
16 Buchanan, Vern R 2104 RHOB 202-225-5015 Ways and Means
17 Rooney, Tom R 221 CHOB 202-225-5792 Appropriations
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
18 Murphy, Patrick D 1517 LHOB 202-225-3026 Financial Services
Small Business
19 Radel, Trey R 1123 LHOB 202-225-2536 Foreign Affairs
Transportation and Infrastructure
20 Hastings, Alcee L. D 2353 RHOB 202-225-1313
Rules
21 Deutch, Ted D 1024 LHOB 202-225-3001 Ethics
Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
22 Frankel, Lois D 1037 LHOB 202-225-9890 Foreign Affairs
Transportation and Infrastructure
23 Wasserman Schultz, Debbie D 118 CHOB 202-225-7931 Appropriations
24 Wilson, Frederica D 208 CHOB 202-225-4506 Education and the Workforce
Science, Space, and Technology
25 Diaz-Balart, Mario R 436 CHOB 202-225-4211 Appropriations
26 Garcia, Joe D 1440 LHOB 202-225-2778 Judiciary
Natural Resources
27 Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana R 2206 RHOB 202-225-3931 Foreign Affairs
Rules
Georgia
1 Kingston, Jack R 2372 RHOB 202-225-5831 Appropriations
2 Bishop Jr., Sanford D. D 2429 RHOB 202-225-3631 Appropriations
3 Westmoreland, Lynn A. R 2433 RHOB 202-225-5901 Financial Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
4 Johnson, Henry C. "Hank" Jr. D 2240 RHOB 202-225-1605 Armed Services
Judiciary
5 Lewis, John D 343 CHOB 202-225-3801 Ways and Means
6 Price, Tom R 100 CHOB 202-225-4501 Budget
Education and the Workforce
Ways and Means
7 Woodall, Robert R 1725 LHOB 202-225-4272 Budget
Oversight and Government Reform
Rules
8 Scott, Austin R 516 CHOB 202-225-6531 Agriculture
Armed Services
9 Collins, Doug R 513 CHOB 202-225-9893 Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
Oversight and Government Reform
10 Broun, Paul C. R 2437 RHOB 202-225-4101 Homeland Security
Natural Resources
Science, Space, and Technology
11 Gingrey, Phil R 442 CHOB 202-225-2931 Energy and Commerce
House Administration
12 Barrow, John D 2202 RHOB 202-225-2823 Energy and Commerce
13 Scott, David D 225 CHOB 202-225-2939 Agriculture
Financial Services
14 Graves, Tom R 432 CHOB 202-225-5211 Appropriations
Guam
At Large Bordallo, Madeleine D 2441 RHOB 202-225-1188 Armed Services
Natural Resources
Hawaii
1 Hanabusa, Colleen D 238 CHOB 202-225-2726 Armed Services
Natural Resources
2 Gabbard, Tulsi D 502 CHOB 202-225-4906 Foreign Affairs
Homeland Security
Idaho
1 Labrador, Raul R. R 1523 LHOB 202-225-6611 Judiciary
Natural Resources
2 Simpson, Mike R 2312 RHOB 202-225-5531 Appropriations
Illinois
1 Rush, Bobby L. D 2268 RHOB 202-225-4372 Energy and Commerce
2 Kelly, Robin D 2419 RHOB 202-225-0773 Oversight and Government Reform
Science, Space, and Technology
3 Lipinski, Daniel D 1717 LHOB 202-225-5701 Science, Space, and Technology
Transportation and Infrastructure
4 Gutierrez, Luis D 2408 RHOB 202-225-8203 Judiciary
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
5 Quigley, Mike D 1124 LHOB 202-225-4061 Appropriations
6 Roskam, Peter J. R 227 CHOB 202-225-4561 Ways and Means
7 Davis, Danny K. D 2159 RHOB 202-225-5006 Oversight and Government Reform
Ways and Means
8 Duckworth, Tammy D 104 CHOB 202-225-3711 Armed Services
Oversight and Government Reform
9 Schakowsky, Jan D 2367 RHOB 202-225-2111 Energy and Commerce
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
10 Schneider, Brad D 317 CHOB 202-225-4835 Foreign Affairs
Small Business
11 Foster, Bill D 1224 LHOB 202-225-3515 Financial Services
12 Enyart, William D 1722 LHOB 202-225-5661 Agriculture
Armed Services
13 Davis, Rodney R 1740 LHOB 202-225-2371 Agriculture
Transportation and Infrastructure
14 Hultgren, Randy R 332 CHOB 202-225-2976 Financial Services
Science, Space, and Technology
15 Shimkus, John R 2452 RHOB 202-225-5271 Energy and Commerce
16 Kinzinger, Adam R 1221 LHOB 202-225-3635 Energy and Commerce
Foreign Affairs
17 Bustos, Cheri D 1009 LHOB 202-225-5905 Agriculture
Transportation and Infrastructure
18 Schock, Aaron R 328 CHOB 202-225-6201 House Administration
Ways and Means
Indiana
1 Visclosky, Peter D 2256 RHOB 202-225-2461 Appropriations
2 Walorski, Jackie R 419 CHOB 202-225-3915 Armed Services
Budget
Veterans' Affairs
3 Stutzman, Marlin R 1728 LHOB 202-225-4436 Financial Services
4 Rokita, Todd R 236 CHOB 202-225-5037 Budget
Education and the Workforce
House Administration
5 Brooks, Susan W. R 1505 LHOB 202-225-2276 Education and the Workforce
Ethics
Homeland Security
6 Messer, Luke R 508 CHOB 202-225-3021 Budget
Education and the Workforce
Foreign Affairs
7 Carson, André D 2453 RHOB 202-225-4011 Armed Services
Transportation and Infrastructure
8 Bucshon, Larry R 1005 LHOB 202-225-4636 Education and the Workforce
Science, Space, and Technology
Transportation and Infrastructure
9 Young, Todd R 1007 LHOB 202-225-5315 Ways and Means
Iowa
1 Braley, Bruce L. D 2263 RHOB 202-225-2911 Energy and Commerce
2 Loebsack, David D 1527 LHOB 202-225-6576 Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
3 Latham, Tom R 2217 RHOB 202-225-5476 Appropriations
4 King, Steve R 2210 RHOB 202-225-4426 Agriculture
Judiciary
Small Business
Kansas
1 Huelskamp, Tim R 129 CHOB 202-225-2715 Small Business
Veterans' Affairs
2 Jenkins, Lynn R 1027 LHOB 202-225-6601 Ways and Means
3 Yoder, Kevin R 215 CHOB 202-225-2865 Appropriations
4 Pompeo, Mike R 107 CHOB 202-225-6216 Energy and Commerce
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Kentucky
1 Whitfield, Ed R 2184 RHOB 202-225-3115 Energy and Commerce
2 Guthrie, S. Brett R 308 CHOB 202-225-3501 Education and the Workforce
Energy and Commerce
3 Yarmuth, John A. D 403 CHOB 202-225-5401 Budget
Education and the Workforce
4 Massie, Thomas R 314 CHOB 202-225-3465 Oversight and Government Reform
Science, Space, and Technology
Transportation and Infrastructure
5 Rogers, Harold R 2406 RHOB 202-225-4601 Appropriations, Chairman
6 Barr, Andy R 1432 LHOB 202-225-4706 Financial Services
Louisiana
1 Scalise, Steve R 2338 RHOB 202-225-3015 Energy and Commerce
2 Richmond, Cedric D 240 CHOB 202-225-6636 Homeland Security
Judiciary
3 Boustany Jr., Charles W. R 1431 LHOB 202-225-2031 Ways and Means
4 Fleming, John R 416 CHOB 202-225-2777 Armed Services
Natural Resources
5 Alexander, Rodney R 316 CHOB 202-225-8490 Appropriations
6 Cassidy, William R 1131 LHOB 202-225-3901 Energy and Commerce
Maine
1 Pingree, Chellie D 1318 LHOB 202-225-6116 Appropriations
2 Michaud, Michael D 1724 LHOB 202-225-6306 Transportation and Infrastructure
Veterans' Affairs
Maryland
1 Harris, Andy R 1533 LHOB 202-225-5311 Appropriations
2 Ruppersberger, Dutch D 2416 RHOB 202-225-3061 Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
3 Sarbanes, John P. D 2444 RHOB 202-225-4016 Energy and Commerce
4 Edwards, Donna F. D 2445 RHOB 202-225-8699 Science, Space, and Technology
Transportation and Infrastructure
5 Hoyer, Steny H. D 1705 LHOB 202-225-4131 Democratic Whip
6 Delaney, John D 1632 LHOB 202-225-2721 Financial Services
7 Cummings, Elijah D 2235 RHOB 202-225-4741 Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
8 Van Hollen, Chris D 1707 LHOB 202-225-5341 Budget
Massachusetts
1 Neal, Richard E. D 2208 RHOB 202-225-5601 Ways and Means
2 McGovern, James D 438 CHOB 202-225-6101 Agriculture
Rules
3 Tsongas, Niki D 1607 LHOB 202-225-3411 Armed Services
Natural Resources
4 Kennedy III, Joseph P. D 1218 LHOB 202-225-5931 Foreign Affairs
Science, Space, and Technology
5 Markey, Ed -- Vacancy D 2108 RHOB 202-225-2836
6 Tierney, John D 2238 RHOB 202-225-8020 Education and the Workforce
Oversight and Government Reform
7 Capuano, Michael E. D 1414 LHOB 202-225-5111 Ethics
Financial Services
Transportation and Infrastructure
8 Lynch, Stephen F. D 2133 RHOB 202-225-8273 Financial Services
Oversight and Government Reform
9 Keating, William D 315 CHOB 202-225-3111 Foreign Affairs
Homeland Security
Michigan
1 Benishek, Dan R 514 CHOB 202-225-4735 Agriculture
Natural Resources
Veterans' Affairs
2 Huizenga, Bill R 1217 LHOB 202-225-4401 Financial Services
3 Amash, Justin R 114 CHOB 202-225-3831 Oversight and Government Reform
4 Camp, Dave R 341 CHOB 202-225-3561 Ways and Means, Chairman
5 Kildee, Daniel D 327 CHOB 202-225-3611 Financial Services
6 Upton, Fred R 2183 RHOB 202-225-3761 Energy and Commerce, Chairman
7 Walberg, Tim R 2436 RHOB 202-225-6276 Education and the Workforce
Oversight and Government Reform
8 Rogers (MI), Mike R 2112 RHOB 202-225-4872 Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Chairman
Energy and Commerce
9 Levin, Sander D 1236 LHOB 202-225-4961 Ways and Means
10 Miller, Candice R 320 CHOB 202-225-2106 House Administration, Chairman
Homeland Security
Transportation and Infrastructure
11 Bentivolio, Kerry R 226 CHOB 202-225-8171 Oversight and Government Reform
Small Business
12 Dingell, John D 2328 RHOB 202-225-4071 Energy and Commerce
13 Conyers Jr., John D 2426 RHOB 202-225-5126 Judiciary
14 Peters, Gary D 1609 LHOB 202-225-5802 Financial Services
Minnesota
1 Walz, Timothy J. D 1034 LHOB 202-225-2472 Agriculture
Transportation and Infrastructure
Veterans' Affairs
2 Kline, John R 2439 RHOB 202-225-2271 Education and the Workforce, Chairman
Armed Services
3 Paulsen, Erik R 127 CHOB 202-225-2871 Ways and Means
4 McCollum, Betty D 1714 LHOB 202-225-6631 Appropriations
5 Ellison, Keith D 2244 RHOB 202-225-4755 Financial Services
6 Bachmann, Michele R 2417 RHOB 202-225-2331 Financial Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
7 Peterson, Collin C. D 2109 RHOB 202-225-2165 Agriculture
8 Nolan, Rick D 2447 RHOB 202-225-6211 Agriculture
Transportation and Infrastructure
Mississippi
1 Nunnelee, Alan R 1427 LHOB 202-225-4306 Appropriations
Budget
2 Thompson, Bennie G. D 2466 RHOB 202-225-5876 Homeland Security
3 Harper, Gregg R 307 CHOB 202-225-5031 Energy and Commerce
House Administration
4 Palazzo, Steven R 331 CHOB 202-225-5772 Armed Services
Homeland Security
Science, Space, and Technology
Missouri
1 Clay Jr., William "Lacy" D 2418 RHOB 202-225-2406 Financial Services
Oversight and Government Reform
2 Wagner, Ann R 435 CHOB 202-225-1621 Financial Services
3 Luetkemeyer, Blaine R 2440 RHOB 202-225-2956 Financial Services
Small Business
4 Hartzler, Vicky R 1023 LHOB 202-225-2876 Agriculture
Armed Services
Budget
5 Cleaver, Emanuel D 2335 RHOB 202-225-4535 Financial Services
6 Graves, Sam R 1415 LHOB 202-225-7041 Small Business, Chairman
Transportation and Infrastructure
7 Long, Billy R 1541 LHOB 202-225-6536 Energy and Commerce
8 Smith, Jason R 2230 RHOB 202-225-4404 Judiciary
Natural Resources
Montana
At Large Daines, Steve R 206 CHOB 202-225-3211 Homeland Security
Natural Resources
Transportation and Infrastructure
Nebraska
1 Fortenberry, Jeff R 1514 LHOB 202-225-4806 Appropriations
2 Terry, Lee R 2266 RHOB 202-225-4155 Energy and Commerce
3 Smith, Adrian R 2241 RHOB 202-225-6435 Ways and Means
Nevada
1 Titus, Dina D 401 CHOB 202-225-5965 Transportation and Infrastructure
Veterans' Affairs
2 Amodei, Mark R 222 CHOB 202-225-6155 Judiciary
Natural Resources
Veterans' Affairs
3 Heck, Joe R 132 CHOB 202-225-3252 Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
4 Horsford, Steven D 1330 LHOB 202-225-9894 Homeland Security
Natural Resources
Oversight and Government Reform
New Hampshire
1 Shea-Porter, Carol D 1530 LHOB 202-225-5456 Armed Services
Natural Resources
2 Kuster, Ann D 137 CHOB 202-225-5206 Agriculture
Small Business
Veterans' Affairs
New Jersey
1 Andrews, Robert E. D 2265 RHOB 202-225-6501 Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
2 LoBiondo, Frank R 2427 RHOB 202-225-6572 Armed Services
Transportation and Infrastructure
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
3 Runyan, Jon R 1239 LHOB 202-225-4765 Armed Services
Natural Resources
Veterans' Affairs
4 Smith, Chris R 2373 RHOB 202-225-3765 , Co-Chair
Foreign Affairs
5 Garrett, Scott R 2232 RHOB 202-225-4465 Budget
Financial Services
6 Pallone Jr., Frank D 237 CHOB 202-225-4671 Energy and Commerce
Natural Resources
7 Lance, Leonard R 133 CHOB 202-225-5361 Energy and Commerce
8 Sires, Albio D 2342 RHOB 202-225-7919 Foreign Affairs
Transportation and Infrastructure
9 Pascrell Jr., Bill D 2370 RHOB 202-225-5751 Budget
Ways and Means
10 Payne Jr., Donald D 103 CHOB 202-225-3436 Homeland Security
Small Business
11 Frelinghuysen, Rodney R 2306 RHOB 202-225-5034 Appropriations
12 Holt, Rush D 1214 LHOB 202-225-5801 Education and the Workforce
Natural Resources
New Mexico
1 Lujan Grisham, Michelle D 214 CHOB 202-225-6316 Agriculture
Budget
Oversight and Government Reform
2 Pearce, Steve R 2432 RHOB 202-225-2365 Financial Services
3 Lujan, Ben R. D 2446 RHOB 202-225-6190 Energy and Commerce
New York
1 Bishop, Timothy D 306 CHOB 202-225-3826 Education and the Workforce
Transportation and Infrastructure
2 King, Pete R 339 CHOB 202-225-7896 Financial Services
Homeland Security
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
3 Israel, Steve D 2457 RHOB 202-225-3335
4 McCarthy, Carolyn D 2346 RHOB 202-225-5516 Education and the Workforce
Financial Services
5 Meeks, Gregory W. D 2234 RHOB 202-225-3461 Financial Services
Foreign Affairs
6 Meng, Grace D 1317 LHOB 202-225-2601 Foreign Affairs
Small Business
7 Velázquez, Nydia M. D 2302 RHOB 202-225-2361 Financial Services
Small Business
8 Jeffries, Hakeem D 1339 LHOB 202-225-5936 Budget
Judiciary
9 Clarke, Yvette D. D 2351 RHOB 202-225-6231 Ethics
Homeland Security
Small Business
10 Nadler, Jerrold D 2110 RHOB 202-225-5635 Judiciary
Transportation and Infrastructure
11 Grimm, Michael R 512 CHOB 202-225-3371 Financial Services
12 Maloney, Carolyn D 2308 RHOB 202-225-7944 Financial Services
Oversight and Government Reform
13 Rangel, Charles B. D 2354 RHOB 202-225-4365 Ways and Means
14 Crowley, Joseph D 1436 LHOB 202-225-3965 Ways and Means
15 Serrano, José E. D 2227 RHOB 202-225-4361 Appropriations
16 Engel, Eliot D 2161 RHOB 202-225-2464 Energy and Commerce
Foreign Affairs
17 Lowey, Nita D 2365 RHOB 202-225-6506 Appropriations
18 Maloney, Sean Patrick D 1529 LHOB 202-225-5441 Agriculture
Transportation and Infrastructure
19 Gibson, Chris R 1708 LHOB 202-225-5614 Agriculture
Armed Services
20 Tonko, Paul D. D 2463 RHOB 202-225-5076 Energy and Commerce
21 Owens, Bill D 405 CHOB 202-225-4611 Appropriations
22 Hanna, Richard R 319 CHOB 202-225-3665 Small Business
Transportation and Infrastructure
23 Reed, Tom R 1504 LHOB 202-225-3161 Ways and Means
24 Maffei, Daniel D 422 CHOB 202-225-3701 Armed Services
Science, Space, and Technology
25 Slaughter, Louise D 2469 RHOB 202-225-3615 Rules
26 Higgins, Brian D 2459 RHOB 202-225-3306 Foreign Affairs
Homeland Security
27 Collins, Chris R 1117 LHOB 202-225-5265 Agriculture
Science, Space, and Technology
Small Business
North Carolina
1 Butterfield, G.K. D 2305 RHOB 202-225-3101 Energy and Commerce
2 Ellmers, Renee R 426 CHOB 202-225-4531 Energy and Commerce
3 Jones, Walter B. R 2333 RHOB 202-225-3415 Armed Services
4 Price, David D 2162 RHOB 202-225-1784 Appropriations
5 Foxx, Virginia R 2350 RHOB 202-225-2071 Education and the Workforce
Rules
6 Coble, Howard R 2188 RHOB 202-225-3065 Judiciary
Transportation and Infrastructure
7 McIntyre, Mike D 2428 RHOB 202-225-2731 Agriculture
Armed Services
8 Hudson, Richard R 429 CHOB 202-225-3715 Agriculture
Education and the Workforce
Homeland Security
9 Pittenger, Robert R 224 CHOB 202-225-1976 Financial Services
10 McHenry, Patrick T. R 2334 RHOB 202-225-2576 Financial Services
Oversight and Government Reform
11 Meadows, Mark R 1516 LHOB 202-225-6401 Foreign Affairs
Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
12 Watt, Mel D 2304 RHOB 202-225-1510 Financial Services
Judiciary
13 Holding, George R 507 CHOB 202-225-3032 Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
North Dakota
At Large Cramer, Kevin R 1032 LHOB 202-225-2611 Natural Resources
Science, Space, and Technology
Northern Mariana Islands
At Large Sablan, Gregorio D 423 CHOB 202-225-2646 Education and the Workforce
Natural Resources
Ohio
1 Chabot, Steve R 2371 RHOB 202-225-2216 Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
Small Business
2 Wenstrup, Brad R 1223 LHOB 202-225-3164 Armed Services
Veterans' Affairs
3 Beatty, Joyce D 417 CHOB 202-225-4324 Financial Services
4 Jordan, Jim R 1524 LHOB 202-225-2676 Judiciary
Oversight and Government Reform
5 Latta, Robert E. R 2448 RHOB 202-225-6405 Energy and Commerce
6 Johnson, Bill R 1710 LHOB 202-225-5705 Energy and Commerce
7 Gibbs, Bob R 329 CHOB 202-225-6265 Agriculture
Transportation and Infrastructure
8 Boehner, John A. R 1011 LHOB 202-225-6205 The Speaker
9 Kaptur, Marcy D 2186 RHOB 202-225-4146 Appropriations
10 Turner, Michael R 2239 RHOB 202-225-6465 Armed Services
Oversight and Government Reform
11 Fudge, Marcia L. D 2344 RHOB 202-225-7032 Agriculture
Education and the Workforce
12 Tiberi, Pat R 106 CHOB 202-225-5355 Ways and Means
13 Ryan, Tim D 1421 LHOB 202-225-5261 Appropriations
Budget
14 Joyce, David R 1535 LHOB 202-225-5731 Appropriations
15 Stivers, Steve R 1022 LHOB 202-225-2015 Financial Services
16 Renacci, Jim R 130 CHOB 202-225-3876 Ways and Means
Oklahoma
1 Bridenstine, Jim R 216 CHOB 202-225-2211 Armed Services
Science, Space, and Technology
2 Mullin, Markwayne R 1113 LHOB 202-225-2701 Natural Resources
Transportation and Infrastructure
3 Lucas, Frank R 2311 RHOB 202-225-5565 Agriculture, Chairman
Financial Services
Science, Space, and Technology
4 Cole, Tom R 2458 RHOB 202-225-6165 Appropriations
Budget
Rules
5 Lankford, James R 228 CHOB 202-225-2132 Budget
Oversight and Government Reform
Oregon
1 Bonamici, Suzanne D 439 CHOB 202-225-0855 Education and the Workforce
Science, Space, and Technology
2 Walden, Greg R 2182 RHOB 202-225-6730 Energy and Commerce
3 Blumenauer, Earl D 1111 LHOB 202-225-4811 Budget
Ways and Means
4 DeFazio, Peter D 2134 RHOB 202-225-6416 Natural Resources
Transportation and Infrastructure
5 Schrader, Kurt D 108 CHOB 202-225-5711 Agriculture
Budget
Small Business
Pennsylvania
1 Brady, Robert D 102 CHOB 202-225-4731 Armed Services
House Administration
2 Fattah, Chaka D 2301 RHOB 202-225-4001 Appropriations
3 Kelly, Mike R 1519 LHOB 202-225-5406 Ways and Means
4 Perry, Scott R 126 CHOB 202-225-5836 Foreign Affairs
Homeland Security
Transportation and Infrastructure
5 Thompson, Glenn W. R 124 CHOB 202-225-5121 Agriculture
Education and the Workforce
Natural Resources
6 Gerlach, Jim R 2442 RHOB 202-225-4315 Ways and Means
7 Meehan, Pat R 204 CHOB 202-225-2011 Ethics
Homeland Security
Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
8 Fitzpatrick, Michael G. R 2400 RHOB 202-225-4276 Financial Services
9 Shuster, Bill R 2209 RHOB 202-225-2431 Transportation and Infrastructure, Chairman
Armed Services
10 Marino, Tom R 410 CHOB 202-225-3731 Foreign Affairs
Homeland Security
Judiciary
11 Barletta, Lou R 115 CHOB 202-225-6511 Education and the Workforce
Homeland Security
Transportation and Infrastructure
12 Rothfus, Keith R 503 CHOB 202-225-2065 Financial Services
13 Schwartz, Allyson Y. D 1227 LHOB 202-225-6111 Budget
Ways and Means
14 Doyle, Mike D 239 CHOB 202-225-2135 Energy and Commerce
15 Dent, Charles W. R 2455 RHOB 202-225-6411 Appropriations
Ethics
16 Pitts, Joseph R. R 420 CHOB 202-225-2411 Energy and Commerce
17 Cartwright, Matthew D 1419 LHOB 202-225-5546 Natural Resources
Oversight and Government Reform
18 Murphy, Tim R 2332 RHOB 202-225-2301 Energy and Commerce
Puerto Rico
At Large Pierluisi, Pedro D 1213 LHOB 202-225-2615 Ethics
Judiciary
Natural Resources
Rhode Island
1 Cicilline, David D 128 CHOB 202-225-4911 Budget
Foreign Affairs
2 Langevin, Jim D 109 CHOB 202-225-2735 Armed Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
South Carolina
1 Sanford, Mark R 322 CHOB 202-225-3176 Homeland Security
Transportation and Infrastructure
2 Wilson, Joe R 2229 RHOB 202-225-2452 Armed Services
Education and the Workforce
Foreign Affairs
3 Duncan, Jeff R 116 CHOB 202-225-5301 Foreign Affairs
Homeland Security
Natural Resources
4 Gowdy, Trey R 1404 LHOB 202-225-6030 Education and the Workforce
Ethics
Judiciary
Oversight and Government Reform
5 Mulvaney, Mick R 1207 LHOB 202-225-5501 Financial Services
Small Business
6 Clyburn, James E. D 242 CHOB 202-225-3315 Assistant Democratic Leader
7 Rice, Tom R 325 CHOB 202-225-9895 Budget
Small Business
Transportation and Infrastructure
South Dakota
At Large Noem, Kristi R 1323 LHOB 202-225-2801 Agriculture
Armed Services
Tennessee
1 Roe, Phil R 407 CHOB 202-225-6356 Education and the Workforce
Veterans' Affairs
2 Duncan Jr., John J. R 2207 RHOB 202-225-5435 Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
3 Fleischmann, Chuck R 230 CHOB 202-225-3271 Appropriations
4 DesJarlais, Scott R 413 CHOB 202-225-6831 Agriculture
Education and the Workforce
Oversight and Government Reform
5 Cooper, Jim D 1536 LHOB 202-225-4311 Armed Services
Oversight and Government Reform
6 Black, Diane R 1531 LHOB 202-225-4231 Budget
Ways and Means
7 Blackburn, Marsha R 217 CHOB 202-225-2811 Budget
Energy and Commerce
8 Fincher, Stephen R 1118 LHOB 202-225-4714 Agriculture
Financial Services
9 Cohen, Steve D 2404 RHOB 202-225-3265 Judiciary
Transportation and Infrastructure
Texas
1 Gohmert, Louie R 2243 RHOB 202-225-3035 Judiciary
Natural Resources
2 Poe, Ted R 2412 RHOB 202-225-6565 Foreign Affairs
Judiciary
3 Johnson, Sam R 1211 LHOB 202-225-4201 Ways and Means
4 Hall, Ralph M. R 2405 RHOB 202-225-6673 Energy and Commerce
Science, Space, and Technology
5 Hensarling, Jeb R 2228 RHOB 202-225-3484 Financial Services, Chairman
6 Barton, Joe R 2107 RHOB 202-225-2002 Energy and Commerce
7 Culberson, John R 2352 RHOB 202-225-2571 Appropriations
8 Brady, Kevin R 301 CHOB 202-225-4901 Ways and Means
9 Green, Al D 2201 RHOB 202-225-7508 Financial Services
10 McCaul, Michael T. R 131 CHOB 202-225-2401 Homeland Security, Chairman
Foreign Affairs
Science, Space, and Technology
11 Conaway, K. Michael R 2430 RHOB 202-225-3605 Ethics, Chairman
Agriculture
Armed Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
12 Granger, Kay R 1026 LHOB 202-225-5071 Appropriations
13 Thornberry, Mac R 2329 RHOB 202-225-3706 Armed Services
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
14 Weber, Randy R 510 CHOB 202-225-2831 Foreign Affairs
Science, Space, and Technology
15 Hinojosa, Rubén D 2262 RHOB 202-225-2531 Education and the Workforce
Financial Services
16 O'Rourke, Beto D 1721 LHOB 202-225-4831 Homeland Security
Veterans' Affairs
17 Flores, Bill R 1030 LHOB 202-225-6105 Budget
Natural Resources
Veterans' Affairs
18 Jackson Lee, Sheila D 2160 RHOB 202-225-3816 Homeland Security
Judiciary
19 Neugebauer, Randy R 1424 LHOB 202-225-4005 Agriculture
Financial Services
Science, Space, and Technology
20 Castro, Joaquin D 212 CHOB 202-225-3236 Armed Services
Foreign Affairs
21 Smith, Lamar R 2409 RHOB 202-225-4236 Science, Space, and Technology, Chairman
Homeland Security
Judiciary
22 Olson, Pete R 312 CHOB 202-225-5951 Energy and Commerce
23 Gallego, Pete D 431 CHOB 202-225-4511 Agriculture
Armed Services
24 Marchant, Kenny R 1110 LHOB 202-225-6605 Education and the Workforce
Ways and Means
25 Williams, Roger R 1122 LHOB 202-225-9896 Budget
Transportation and Infrastructure
26 Burgess, Michael R 2336 RHOB 202-225-7772 Energy and Commerce
Rules
27 Farenthold, Blake R 117 CHOB 202-225-7742 Judiciary
Oversight and Government Reform
Transportation and Infrastructure
28 Cuellar, Henry D 2431 RHOB 202-225-1640 Appropriations
29 Green, Gene D 2470 RHOB 202-225-1688 Energy and Commerce
30 Johnson, Eddie Bernice D 2468 RHOB 202-225-8885 Science, Space, and Technology
Transportation and Infrastructure
31 Carter, John R 409 CHOB 202-225-3864 Appropriations
32 Sessions, Pete R 2233 RHOB 202-225-2231 Rules, Chairman
33 Veasey, Marc D 414 CHOB 202-225-9897 Armed Services
Science, Space, and Technology
34 Vela, Filemon D 437 CHOB 202-225-9901 Agriculture
Homeland Security
35 Doggett, Lloyd D 201 CHOB 202-225-4865 Ways and Means
36 Stockman, Steve R 326 CHOB 202-225-1555 Foreign Affairs
Science, Space, and Technology
Utah
1 Bishop, Rob R 123 CHOB 202-225-0453 Armed Services
Natural Resources
Rules
2 Stewart, Chris R 323 CHOB 202-225-9730 Homeland Security
Natural Resources
Science, Space, and Technology
3 Chaffetz, Jason R 2464 RHOB 202-225-7751 Homeland Security
Judiciary
Oversight and Government Reform
4 Matheson, Jim D 2211 RHOB 202-225-3011 Energy and Commerce
Vermont
At Large Welch, Peter D 2303 RHOB 202-225-4115 Energy and Commerce
Oversight and Government Reform
Virgin Islands
At Large Christensen, Donna M., D 1510 LHOB 202-225-1790 Energy and Commerce
Virginia
1 Wittman, Robert J. R 2454 RHOB 202-225-4261 Armed Services
Natural Resources
2 Rigell, Scott R 418 CHOB 202-225-4215 Armed Services
Budget
3 Scott, Robert C. D 1201 LHOB 202-225-8351 Education and the Workforce
Judiciary
4 Forbes, J. Randy R 2135 RHOB 202-225-6365 Armed Services
Judiciary
5 Hurt, Robert R 125 CHOB 202-225-4711 Financial Services
6 Goodlatte, Bob R 2309 RHOB 202-225-5431 Judiciary, Chairman
Agriculture
7 Cantor, Eric R 303 CHOB 202-225-2815 Majority Leader
8 Moran, James D 2252 RHOB 202-225-4376 Appropriations
9 Griffith, Morgan R 1108 LHOB 202-225-3861 Energy and Commerce
10 Wolf, Frank R 233 CHOB 202-225-5136 Appropriations
11 Connolly, Gerald E. "Gerry" D 424 CHOB 202-225-1492 Foreign Affairs
Oversight and Government Reform
Washington
1 DelBene, Suzan D 318 CHOB 202-225-6311 Agriculture
Judiciary
2 Larsen, Rick D 2113 RHOB 202-225-2605 Armed Services
Transportation and Infrastructure
3 Herrera Beutler, Jaime R 1130 LHOB 202-225-3536 Appropriations
Small Business
4 Hastings, Doc R 1203 LHOB 202-225-5816 Natural Resources, Chairman
Oversight and Government Reform
5 McMorris Rodgers, Cathy R 203 CHOB 202-225-2006 Energy and Commerce
6 Kilmer, Derek D 1429 LHOB 202-225-5916 Armed Services
Science, Space, and Technology
7 McDermott, Jim D 1035 LHOB 202-225-3106 Budget
Ways and Means
8 Reichert, David G. R 1127 LHOB 202-225-7761 Ways and Means
9 Smith, Adam D 2264 RHOB 202-225-8901 Armed Services
10 Heck, Denny D 425 CHOB 202-225-9740 Financial Services
West Virginia
1 McKinley, David R 412 CHOB 202-225-4172 Energy and Commerce
2 Capito, Shelley Moore R 2366 RHOB 202-225-2711 Financial Services
Transportation and Infrastructure
3 Rahall, Nick D 2307 RHOB 202-225-3452 Transportation and Infrastructure
Wisconsin
1 Ryan, Paul R 1233 LHOB 202-225-3031 Budget, Chairman
Ways and Means
2 Pocan, Mark D 313 CHOB 202-225-2906 Budget
Oversight and Government Reform
3 Kind, Ron D 1502 LHOB 202-225-5506 Ways and Means
4 Moore, Gwen D 2245 RHOB 202-225-4572 Budget
Financial Services
5 Sensenbrenner, F. James R 2449 RHOB 202-225-5101 Judiciary
Science, Space, and Technology
6 Petri, Thomas R 2462 RHOB 202-225-2476 Education and the Workforce
Transportation and Infrastructure
7 Duffy, Sean P. R 1208 LHOB 202-225-3365 Budget
Financial Services
8 Ribble, Reid R 1513 LHOB 202-225-5665 Agriculture
Budget
Transportation and Infrastructure
Wyoming
At Large Lummis, Cynthia M. R 113 CHOB 202-225-2311 Natural Resources
Oversight and Government Reform
Science, Space, and Technology
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
J.C. Penney (JCP) - Volatility Explodes as Stock Hits 13-year Lows; Solvency is Now a Question
JCP is trading $10.25, down 13.09% with IV30™ exploding up 41.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.
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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (jcpenney), is a holding company. The Company is a retailer, operating 1,102 department stores in 49 states and Puerto Rico as of January 28, 2012. Its business consists of selling merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and through its Internet Website at jcp.com.
I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for vol gainers on the day. There’s news... more on that in a sec. I do note that JCP is the single largest volatility gainer on the day.
Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percent Change GTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
IV30™ Change GTE 7
The two-year JCP Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).
On the stock side we can see JCP has fallen to multi-year lows. As far as I can tell, these are more than decade long stock price lows. So what’s the news?... Pretty simple, the firm has long been stuck in neutral (or reverse) trying to keep its head above water, but today, Goldie (GS) said, they see any realized “improvement” as being slower than the firm expects and now, here’s the big one, they see potential liquidity issues. In English, Goldie is now looking toward the firm’s solvency as a going concern. Not good…
Let’s turn to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.
So we can see the incredible pop today in the implied. What’s also noteworthy however, is that JCP has seen higher levels in IV30™ several times this year already. I think the question is not why JCP vol is so high right now, but rather, what the heck was it doing so low before today? This feels like a vol pop back to “normal” rather than a vol pop that is out of the norm. There is huge risk in JCP right now, it may and very well, it may not, but when solvency becomes a question… that’s big boy risk.
Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).
Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 90.80% for Oct, 82.96% for Nov and 75.83% for Jan’14. So, the risk is focused in the near-term. That is a little odd considering the Nov expiry should have an earnings date. Hmmm...
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Monday, September 23, 2013
Finisar (FNSR) - Volatility Breaches Multi-year Lows as Stock Trades at Multi-year Highs
FNSR is trading $23.38, down 1.4% with IV30™ down 4.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.
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Finisar Corporation develops and provides fiber optic subsystems and network performance test systems which enable data communications over local area networks, or LANs, and storage area networks, or SANs.
I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for depressed vols. I note that FNSR is in the “0th” percentile, meaning it’s at an annual low in IV30™. Further, the volatility level is in fact a multi-year low as the stock price is right at multi-year highs.
The two-year FNSR Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).
On the stock side we can a remarkable appreciation from ~$12.50 to now over $23 or ~a 75% gain since May. If we take a broader view, we can see that the stock levels today are in the realm of multi-year highs. Well done management.
But, of course, this is a volatility note as well, so let’s turn to the two-year IV30™chart in isolation, below.
We can see a cascading implied from nearly 100% down to ~37% now. Another interesting way to view the implied is to look at the peaks reached into each earnings session (the blue “E” icons represent earnings dates). Note how those peaks get lower in a relatively monotonic way. We now find ourselves with a stock at multi-year highs in stock price and multi-year lows in volatility.
Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).
Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 36.72%, 39.24% and 44.64% for Oct, Nov and Dec, respectively.
It’s the Oct and Nov time-frame that catches my eye – if a stock is up a lot, and the vol is down a lot and the market goes... Well, you get it…
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Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Netflix (NFLX) - The New Giant -- Stock Near All-time High but Volatility Collapses to Multi-year Low
NFLX is trading at $2302.31, up 0.9% with IV30™ down 1.5%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.
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Netflix, Inc. (Netflix), incorporated on August 29, 1997, is an Internet subscription service streaming television shows and movies. The Company’s subscribers can watch unlimited television shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers and mobile devices, and in the United States, subscribers can also receive digital versatile discs (DVDs) delivered to their homes.
I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for depressed vols. NFLX is getting dangerously close to a multi-year low in implied vol.
Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 20
IV30™ Percentile LTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
I actually just wrote a sort of seminal piece on NFLX and how it has become one of the most powerful firms in the entertainment industry. Here are a few snippets from my article when the stock hit a new all-time high (9-10-2013). You can read the entire article by clicking on the title here:
Netflix (NFLX) - Is this the Most Powerful Firm in Entertainment? Some Things I Bet You Didn't Know... But Want to.
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So why is this happening to NFLX? Well, a lot of reasons, but one of the biggest is pretty simple:
NFLX now decides which TV shows are hits. Yeah, that's right. For example, the AMC original show Breaking Bad, the highest rated TV show ever by meta critics, was at a point after season 4 where its record viewership for any one episode was ~1.5 million people. That's actually very low. CBS has nights where shows hit 20 million. The Walking Dead (also on AMC) hit over 12 million. So, Breaking Bad, though a bonanza on the critical side, was actually kind of a poor performer in terms of viewership. Then NFLX happened.
An agreement was struck to put all of the "Breaking Bad" old seasons on NFLX for free (everything is free on NFLX with the monthly subscription). The first episode of season 5 aired to 3 million viewers (so a 100% increase). Then, the first episode of season 5 part II aired to 6 million viewers (NB: My numbers may be off wrt which season the bump(s) happened, do some fact checking before quoting me). OK, OK, is this really b/c of NFLX? Well, here's a direct quote from the show's creator, Vince Gilligan:
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"I am grateful as hell for binge-watching. I am grateful that AMC and Sony took a gamble on us in the first place to put us on the air. But I'm just as grateful for an entirely different company that I have no stake in whatsoever: Netflix. I don't think you'd be sitting here interviewing me if it weren't for Netflix. In its third season, Breaking Bad got this amazing nitrous-oxide boost of energy and general public awareness because of Netflix."
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Why does this matter? How about this... Instead of NFLX paying for content, the content providers may pay NFLX to air their shows. That's incredible.
Add to the fact that NFLX now has critically acclaimed original content -- that's content available ONLY on NFLX ("House of Cards" and "Orange is the New Black" are two of them) and what we're slowly finding here is that NFLX may become the most powerful content distributor for TV (the profitable part of the entertainment business) on the planet.
Don't laugh or roll eyes, it's happening right now. FOX is tying the same game as AMC did with "Breaking Bad" with their sitcom "The New Girl." And you know what?... it's working again...
Now NFLX does have competitors, namely AMZN (I know they're not the first name to come up from entertainment industry folks, but the entertainment industry is wrong -- AMZN is the risk for NFLX). Another risk is the content creators using their own channels (no pun intended)... but that doesn't seem to work so far (and yeah I know what Hulu is and who created it).
Here's more news, from CNBC a day after I posted this article:
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Groundbreaking news that Virgin Media is bringing Netflix directly to its set-top box in the U.K. in effect elevates Netflix to the status of a new cable network-a benefit for a cable company and beyond being an upstart threat to cable.
The deal, which makes Netflix available on cable set-top boxes for the first time, was announced Monday. On Tuesday, Netflix shares hit a new all-time high, trading 6.5 percent higher to $313, flying past its record $304 on July 13, 2011.
The stock's nearly 220 percent gains this year have been driven largely by the success of its original content deals, which have helped add new subscribers, giving Wall Street confidence that exclusive originals will continue to deliver.
(More from Julia Boorstin: Is Apple's iRadio a Pandora killer? )
Virgin's parent, Liberty Global (LBTYA), gained just under a percentage point on Tuesday's news.
Virgin Media's partnership with Netflix is the first time a cable operator is bringing the streaming service directly to the set-top box. Other cable operators-like Comcast (CMCSA)-allow users to access Netflix through Internet-connected set-top boxes-but this is the first time a cable channel has directly made a deal with Netflix to treat its content just like that provided by cable channels like HBO (owned by Time Warner (TWX)) and Showtime (owned by CBS (CBS)). (Disclosure: Comcast is the owner of NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC and CNBC.com.)
Virgin will integrate Netflix with its television content so it's easy to seamlessly browse and search across both TV and streaming content.
Source: CNBC via Yahoo! Finance Why Netflix is at a new all-time high, written by Julia Boorstin.
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Let’s turn to the two-year NFLX Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).
On the stock side we can see the impossible upswing from ~$50 to over $300. A firm that was buried has now not only come back to life, but is looking to eat other firms’ life too. But, all along there is also a volatility story. Let’s turn to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.
Check out that dipping volatility. We’re within inches of seeing a new multi-year low in volatility as this stock has moved up ~500% in a year and has the makings of a potential industry giant. I sometimes hear the phrase “disruptive technology” misused and thrown around… well, this may be an apropos time to use the phrase, because NFLX is disrupting everything.
Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below) as of the close yesterday.
Across the top we can see that Oct is priced to 37.42% (36.87% as of this writing) while Nov is much higher at 52.28% (52.11% as of this writing). NFLX has earnings due out at the end of Oct (outside Oct expiry), so that elevated vol is reflecting earnings risk. My question is, what about before earnings? What about pre-announcements from the networks if things are “working” or if they aren’t “working” with NFLX. A multi-year low in the implied at this point feels… weird…
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Monday, September 16, 2013
Medivation (MDVN) - Volatility Breaches Annual High in Cancer Drug Bio-tech Up 600% in Two-years; Another Event is Coming
MDVN closed Friday at $59.74, down 0.50% with IV30™ up ~4%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.
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Medivation, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of novel therapies. The Company advanced program XTANDI (enzalutamide) capsules, or XTANDI, is partnered with Astellas Pharma Inc. ( Astellas).
I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols. This a note on a stock with rising volatility which is now at an annual high, and a stock which has seen more than 600% growth in two-years.
Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
The two-year MDVN Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).
On the stock side we can see that this was an ~$8 stock just two-years ago, and has now found its way to nearly $60. A remarkable return. We can also see that MDVN has certainly found an equilibrium stock price well above $50 (more than in a sec).
But this is a volatility note, so let’s turn to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.
So, there are three phenomena relating to the volatility that make this such an interesting case study.
(1) The current IV30™ is at an annual high, yet earnings just came out in Aug – this is a non-earnings event driven volatility we’re seeing.
(2) The implied in this stock has seen meteoric levels as of two years ago – we’re talking more than 220%. But, in all fairness, this is an entirely different company now, just look at the stock price.
(3) The current level of IV30™ is wildly elevated to any measure of historical realized volatility. Here are some comps:
IV30™: 94.73%
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HV10™: 20.45%
HV20™: 26.29%
HV30™: 27.46%
HV60™: 32.72%
HV180™: 36.76%
So in English, the risk reflected by the option market (IV30™) is 2-4x higher than the realized movement of the stock over almost any time horizon ranging from the last 10 trading days, to the last 180 trading days (~9 calendar months). It seems pretty apparent that there is an event coming soon. The Options Tab proves the final point quite well.
Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).
Across the top we can see Sep is priced to 65.72% while Oct is priced to 94.69%. Nov then dips to 79.47%. That vol differential points to some sort of event in Oct – a rather large one. A cancer drug bio-tech, I think we’re looking at an FDA panel hearing or late stage clinical trial results. This is going to be a fun one to watch.
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Thursday, September 12, 2013
Pandora (P) - All-time High Stock Price... Does MSFT Have a History of Competing Well Against AAPL?
P is trading $24.12, up 12.8% with IV30™ up 7.1%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.
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Pandora Media, Inc. (Pandora), is an Internet radio in the United States. As of January 31, 2012, it had over 125 million registered users.
This is a vol and stock note, in a name that has just broken an all-time high in stock price. Let's start with the news today, which is suspiciously benighn... or so I think:
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Pandora surged after the Internet radio company named former Microsoft executive Brian McAndrews as its new chief executive officer, replacing Joe Kennedy.
Source: CNBC via Yahoo! Finance, written by JeeYeon Park
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OK... Well, let's take a look at the two-year Charts Tab for P, below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).
We can see the stock pop today, pushing the price to what is actually an all-time high with a market cap of ~$3.75 billion. But if we take a slightly less myopic view and look at the stock chart for P over the last two-years (rather than just today) we can see a fairly dramatic price appreciation. In fact, the 52 wk low for P was $7.08, so it's up more than 200% in less than a year. The point? Simply that the new CEO news did push the stock to an all-time high, but the price had been appreciation quite abruptly even before this news.
What's interesting about P is that there have been a number of new entrants / competitors (like Spotify), but the real "scare" for P has been and continues to be the possibility that AAPL iTunes Radio will simply erase Pandora altogether. By "scare" I mean the most prevalent competitive news stories have written about Apple iTunes Radio in particular. In fact, a NY Times article from just 22 hours ago reads the following:
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Apple’s newest music feature, iTunes Radio, will be released on Sept. 18 as part of its iOS 7 system update, the company announced on Tuesday. The service is a sleek take on Internet radio, and Apple’s ability to place the app on millions of its devices gives it an enormous potential audience from Day 1.
“It’s a huge opportunity on a global basis to accelerate the transition of radio listeners and advertising dollars from terrestrial to digital,” said Stephen Bryan, the executive vice president for digital strategy at the Warner Music Group, which releases music by Green Day, Bruno Mars and hundreds of other acts.
The service is a threat to Pandora Media, which dominates Internet radio. But music and advertising executives say that the magnitude of that threat is unclear, given Apple’s relatively late entry into streaming music and Pandora’s strong market position. Both offer free streams of music tailored to a user’s taste and supported by advertising. In August, Pandora had 72.1 million active users — almost all in the United States — who streamed 1.35 billion hours of music, according to data released by the company.
“At this point Pandora is one of the leading recipients of mobile advertising revenue, and is one of the most popular apps, period, across devices,” said Clark Fredricksen, a vice president at eMarketer, a research firm. “It’s tough to see it getting killed.”
Source: NY Times, With iTunes Radio, Apple Takes Aim at Pandora
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Given what has been happening with AAPL, it is interesting how little effect the new competitive landscape has had on Pandora. I just wrote a seminal article on AAPL (did I just call my own article seminal? Come on, let me have some fun) yesterday, which you can read by clicking on the title:
Apple (AAPL) - Part 7 (The End): This Just Isn't the Company it Used to Be... And it Never Will Be Again.
While I argue that AAPL's position as the number one technology innovator in the world has clearly been lost, I wouldn't all of a sudden assume they can't gobble up a company like Pandora with a better (or simply more easily distributed) product. I think the dismissal of the AAPL iTunes Radio product as reflected by Pandora's continued stock rise may be a bit... imprudent.
Let's turn to the volatility for P, there's a story to tell here as well. I've included the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.
Two things are pretty easy to recognize:
(1) the peaks into earnings (the blue "E" icons represent an earnings date) are getting lower and lower. it's not monotonic, but overall, it's undeniable.
(2) The overall level of the implied is simply lower. This was a stock that traded in 130% range for IV30™ and now we're looking at ~56% after a market moving news event.
Both of these phenomena are natural as a firm moves from IPO stage to a more mature firm (in the public realm), but still... The stock is up more than 200% in something like nine-months and AAPL and a bunch of others are out there ready, willing and able to compete.
So... Why is P implied so low? And... Why is the news of a MSFT exec becoming CEO such good news? Does MSFT have a history of competing well against AAPL?
Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab for completeness.
Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 55.39%, 55.55% and 59.74% for Sep, Oct and Dec, respectively. That's fairly flat... or in English, this semi-depressed vol in P appears to be in a state of equilibrium... Hmm....
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