Friday, August 30, 2013

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - Vol Pops as Stock Falls 80%, then Rises 500%; Why is Sep Volatility so Cheap?


CZR is trading $21.77, down 0.32% with IV30™ popping 10.8%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Caesars Entertainment Corporation provides casino entertainment services. Its casino entertainment facilities include land-based casinos, riverboat or dockside casinos, managed casinos, combination greyhound racetrack and casino, combination thoroughbred racetrack and casino, and harness racetrack and casino, hotel and convention space, restaurants, and non-gaming entertainment facilities.

First, on a totally random point, shouldn't the firm name be Caesar's with an apostrophe?  What's up with that... Anyway, I digress...

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for vol gainers on the day. But this note is actually focused on depressed vol and an exploding stock price. CZR is actually the only company to appear on the screen today.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percent Change GTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
IV30™ Change GTE 7

The two-year CZR Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see two pieces to a single chart:
(1) The first part sees the stock drop from ~$18 to ~$4.50. So just a cataclysmic implosion with the firm nearing bankruptcy levels.
(2) The rise from $4.50 to now ~ $22, an incredible reversal seeing a stock rise to 550% of its prior value in less than a year.

The stock is now at an all-time high. But this is also a volatility note, so let’s look to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



We can see the spike in the implied today, but really, that’s not the story. This stock has seen implied vol over 120% in the last year and now trades at volatility in the 70% range. Given the schizophrenic stock movement over the last two-years, I dunno about 70% vol. That’s just I the 25th percentile for the year and the stock is ripping right now. At the end of June, this was a $12 stock…

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see that Sep vol is well depressed at 69.39% while Oct and Dec pop over 80%. My focus is on that short-term volatility in the Sep expiry. What’s going on there?

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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Methode Electronics (MEI) - Stock Explodes to Decade High on Earnings; Pre-earnings Trading Very Suspicious


MEI is trading $23.50, up 33.3% with IV30™ popping 20.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Methode Electronics, Inc., is a manufacturer of component and subsystem devices. The Company operates in four segments: automotive, interconnect, power products, and other. The Company designs, manufactures and markets devices employing electrical, radio remote controls, electronic, wireless and sensing technologies.

MEI is the single largest stock gainer today and pushed the stock to decade highs off of an earnings release that shocked everyone... Well, almost everyone... I believe that the order flow leading up to the earnings release does in fact reveal potential malfeasance – that is, the use of insider information to garner illegal profits. But this one is tricky – in so many ways.

Let’s get started with the Stats Tab, below.



Just one thing I want to note here, which is that the firm averages 36 total option contracts traded a day – that’s a three month (60 trading day) average. Those 36 contracts breakdown to average:

(1) 29 calls traded a day
(2) 7 puts traded a day

OK, keep those tiny numbers in mind as we walk through this analysis. This is a diagnosis, but first we need a symptom.

Let’s turn to the Options Tab as of right now, and look at the OI in the Sep 17.5 calls.



I’ve highlighted the strike in question. I first noted that the OI was pretty large for this name, in fact the total sum of the OI in all of Sep is 372, so those calls are 182% of the other OI in Sep (240 vs 132).

OK, that’s the symptom.

Here’s the diagnosis.

The OI in those calls looked like this over the last few days:
8-26-2103: OI = 1
8-27-2103: OI = 115
8-28-2103: OI = 215
8-29-2103: OI = 240

Hmmm... The firm averages 29 calls traded a day yet the Sep 17.5 calls alone traded over 100x on 8/26 and 8/27 with earnings out on 8/29.

Well, what about those calls? On 8-27-2013 100 traded, but on the bid. So, they were probably sales, right? No, absolutely wrong. I hope you have LIVEVOL® Pro, but if you don't, watch this.

Here is the Time & Sales snapshot from that day for those calls, and then the real analysis.



OK, there’s one hundred trading $0.80 on the bid. But, check this out. Let’s look at the level II quotes at the time of the trade.



Look at PHLX. The NBBO before the trade was $0.65 x $0.85, then on PHLX someone posted a bid of $0.80 and that bid was hit. This type of trading does two things:

(1) Allows for a better execution than simply lifting the offer (which would have cost $0.85)
(2) It hides the trade by looking like it traded on the bid and was therefore a sale.

But this wasn’t a sale – we can see clearly that the initiator bid up the options and got their fill for $0.80. Was that just a coincidence? Well, let’s look at the day before.

I have included the same level II quotes at the time of a trade on 8-26-2013, below.



Here we see the NBBO was $0.85 x $1.20 before the trade then someone bid $1.15 and the offer dropped to $1.15 to match it. Again, that’s a hidden trade.

All in all, I see 239 Sep 17. Calls bought for ~$0.85 a few days prior to an earnings blowout that pushed the stock to a decade high stock price.

Total paper profits: 239 x 100 x ($6.00 - $0.85) = $123,085 on a $20,000 bet or a 600% gain in three days. How convenient...

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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

TASER Int'l (TASR) - Stock Explodes, Volatility Explodes More. Options Reflect More Upside to Come.


TASR is trading $11.30, down 4.6% with IV30™ spiking 12.8%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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TASER International, Inc. (TASER) is engaged in development, manufacture and sale of electronic control devices (ECDs) designed for use in the law enforcement, military, corrections, private security and personal defense markets. Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies in the United States and globally represent the target market for its TASER ECDs.


I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for vol gainers on the day. But there is so much more goin on with this firm in the options realm -- elevated vol and reverse skew along with a rocketing stock price. This is a juicy one...

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percent Change GTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
IV30™ Change GTE 7

The one-year TASR Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).


On the stock side we can that this was a $5.55 stock a year ago, and has more than doubled in twelve months. But more interesting is how that return evolved. First, the stock went from that $5.50 (ish) level to ~$8 on an earnings release in October of 2012. Then there was a quiet period and a nice equilibrium seemed to be reached. Then there was the last six weeks.

On 8-12-2013 this was an $8.60 stock. Today it's trading over $11, up 31% in less than two months. And is there a vol story behind the move, yeah, there is...

Let's turn to the one-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



We can see that the implied has popped from 42.66% on 8-2-2013, to now over 64% or a 50%+ pop in this time period (less than two months). So we see a stock popping on exploding vol, and then today we get another volatility spike. The volatility plot thickens when we turn to the Skew Tab, below.



Check out the skew shape for Sep and Oct options.  it's decidedly upward sloping, which is the reverse of "normal" skew.  The option market reflects substantially greater upside risk (potential) then downside risk even after a rip roaring six-week stock rise and volatility spike.  So, in English, the option market reflects a greater probability of an upside move than a downside move. To learn about skew you can read this post: Understanding Option Skew -- What it is and Why it Exists

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see that Sep vol is priced to 63.73% and Oct vol is priced to almost the identical level.  It's Dec and Mar'15 where the volatility drops considerably.  So, the option reflects elevated risk right  now and for the next two-months in TASR with a decidedly upside tilt... Of course, that does not mean the stock is going up -- it means the options are priced that way, potentially due to upside speculation.

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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

salesforce.com (CRM) - Volatility Breaches Annual High into Earnings; Will Pattern of Big Moves Continue?


CRM is trading $42.42, down 2.3% with IV30™ up 6.4%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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salesforce.com, inc. is a provider of enterprise cloud computing and social enterprise solutions. The Company provides a customer and collaboration relationship management (CRM), applications through the Internet or cloud.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols and CRM vol is now trading at an annual high. The firm does report earnings in two days (AMC),so elevated vol makes sense. It's the level of the volatility that caught my eye.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The one-year CRM Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the stock is up from $37.27 a year ago, so a ~13% return. That's a bit behind the broader indices. What I do note is the stock movement after the latest three earnings releases. note the blue "E" icons represent an earnings date. We can see how the stock has moved in the days surrounding earnings for the last three cycles, below:

(1) $35-$40
(2) $41-$46
(3) $46-$37

These are non-trivial moves in relatively short periods of time and the last one was not good... There is pent up risk in CRM earnings based on the last three results (in my opinion) so the elevated volatility makes sense.

Let's turn to the one-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



I've drawn in that yellow horizontal line to better illustrate how high the current vol is relative to last year. We're at annual highs and I suspect volatility will continue to rise today, tomorrow and on the 29th right up to the earnings release after the close. In any case, the market could be very "reactive" to the earnings news whether it be good, bad or 'blah'.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see Aug30 weekly options are priced to 111.61% (that's all earnings). Sep monthly vol is priced to 49.16% while Oct is priced to 40.82%. Right now those weekly options are pricing in ~$3.50 move (look at the 42.5 dollar strike). I do note that CRM has that tendency to react of of earnings, and then continue to drift in the same direction for several days after the announcement. This will be an interesting one to watch.

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Monday, August 26, 2013

Gulfport Energy (GPOR) - Stock Breaches All-time 14-year Highs; Volatility Collapses to Multi-year Lows... Huh?


GPOR is trading $58.09, up 1.7% with IV30™ down 0.6%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Gulfport Energy Corporation (Gulfport) is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company with its principal producing properties located along the Louisiana Gulf Coast in the West Cote Blanche Bay, or WCBB, and Hackberry fields, and in West Texas in the Permian Basin.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for depressed vols. I note that the implied is at multi-year lows while the stock price is at multi-year highs; in fact all-time 14-year highs. This is yet another case where it feels like market complacency (or malaise) with respect to the option volatility has taken over.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 20
IV30™ Percentile LTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The two-year GPOR Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the price is now at multi-year highs. How many years? How about an all-time high going back pre-year 2000? Yeah, that kind of multi-year high. We can see that a little more than a year ago this was a $15 stock and is now nearly 400% that level.

But what about the vol? Well, let’s turn to the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



We can see the implied hit as high as 95% in fall of two-years ago, but now is at a multi-year low, trading in the low 30% range. Incredible… yes the firm just released earnings, and yes that means a vol crush, and yes volatility goes down (generally) as stock prices rise, but no, a multi-year low in volatility does not make a lot of sense to me when it coincides with a 14-year high in stock price.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 32.81% for Sep and 35.70 %for Oct. I would put a big golden star next to this name on my watchlist and watch the price action (realized volatility) relative to the implied volatility.

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Friday, August 23, 2013

Microsoft (MSFT) - CEO Steps Down; Stock Pops & Volatility Drops... But Someone Knew Ahead of Time. And So Did You.


MSFT is trading $34.40, up 6.2% with IV30™ down 13.1%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Microsoft Corporation is engaged in developing, licensing and supporting a range of software products and services. The Company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to the customers.

The option market priced in this event a week ago. And it appears there was some suspicious trading on 8-7-2013 (many thanks to Doris Frankel for pointing out the order flow). How about that?...

What I see here is evidence of potential improprietous usage of insider information and a fascinating reflection of this risk embedded inside the option market at large. And yes, there may have been rumors about this news, but someone speculated fairly largely to the upside on a stock that had just collapsed off of earnings for just a "rumor."

This is a follow up to the blog I posted on 8-20-2013 (i.e. three days ago). You can read that post by clicking on the title below:

Microsoft (MSFT) - Volatility Explodes, Stock Stays Still After Big Drop on Earnings; This is Not Equilibrium

As the title reads, my main contention three days was simply that the option market reflected extreme volatility in the near-term and that the stock, though it was trading in a tight range after the earnings fallout, was not at equilibrium. It turns out that the contention was correct -- MSFT was not at equilibrium, the stock did move big in the immediate-term and the volatility has now cooled off. The news "seemed" like a surprise, but not to the careful observer.  Here's a news snippet:

---
The announcement of Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer’s plans to retire within the next 12 months was just seconds old when shares of the famed software maker took off, up 8% in pre-market trading merely on investor glee that the king was (almost) dead.

In regular early trading, Microsoft shares were up 7% in to $34.68. Since Ballmer owns some 333 million shares, news of his retirement actually boosted his own net worth by about $1 billion.

Source: The Exchange via Yahoo! Finance; Ballmer’s Pending Departure Only Makes His Mistakes More Obvious
---

For the sake of ease, let's look at the two company summaries from 8-19 and today (8-23) side-by-side, below:

8-19-2013


8-23-2013



We see the stock is up ~10% and the volatility is down ~15% from three days ago.

If we look at the Options Tab from the close on 8-7-2013, below, we can see that 62,500 Sep 32 calls and 83,200 Sep 33 calls traded on that day, and they were substantially purchases.  As we'll see later in this post, the OI in the Sep 33 calls is now 166,000+ while the OI in the Sep 32 calls is just under 80,000.  The Sep 33 calls were purchased for ~ $0.20 and mid-day today were priced at ~ $2.00.  That would be ~ 1000% in two weeks.



Let's examine this a little closer and turn to the Charts Tab (one-year) below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can first see the gap down on 7-19-2013 off of the earnings release from the day earlier (AMC).  But then, as I've highlighted, the stock found a quite period where it literally moved ~$0.35 close-to-close in ~a month time period.  Just stuck.  But not the volatility...

Let's turn to the one IV30™ chart in isolation below.



To quote my prior article:
---
We can see that even though earnings were quite disappointing, the vol dropped (as it normally does) after earnings. The news was digested, the equity value dipped and all seemed back to normal. But after the implied dipped to 17.4% on 8-2-103, it has since exploded up more than 52%, breaching an annual high on Friday.
---

Exactly, Ophir, the volatility exploded as the stock was sitting in a quiet period.  We can see that the level reached in the short-term implied was in fact an annual high... And what do you know, one week later, after a month of a frozen equity price, the stock has popped 6% and, note this, the volatility has dropped.  The vol drop reflects that whatever risk was lingering in the stock is now gone -- or in English, the risk was this announcement, and it's now happened.  Remarkable efficiency from the option market.  Remarkably good timing in the August 7th call purchases too.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab, below.


Across the top we can see that Sep vol is priced to 22.84% and Oct vol is priced 22.10%, both down substantially on the news today.  As I mentioned at the top, check out that OI in the Sep 32 and Sep 33 calls.  How fortunate for someone...

Well there you go.  MSFT was not in equilibrium, but the option market now reads that it is... at least for the short-term...

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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Incyte (INCY) - Bio-Pharma Stock Explodes to 13-year High and Volatility Pops on Cancer Trial Results


INCY is trading $34.87, up 29.2% with IV30™ popping up 15.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Incyte Corporation (Incyte) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of small molecule drugs to treat serious unmet medical needs.

The news today that’s moving stock and volatility are results from a phase-two trial showing one of their compounds increased survival rates for pancreatic cancer significantly above the placebo. That is news indeed. This both an order flow and vol note.

I found INCY using the high option volume (relative to average) scan – it’s the single most active issue relative to its own average. I have included the Stats Tab snapshot. We can see that the company has already traded over 13,500 contracts traded on a total daily average volume of just 631. Calls have traded on a nearly 2:1 ratio to puts which is actually below the average of 2.8:1.



Let’s turn to the Charts Tab (two-year) below. The top portion is the stock price; the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the price is well into multi-year high territory. In fact, according to an article by IBD, this is a 13-year high in stock price. Just extraordinary…

But here’s the thing… It is extraordinary. So what is volatility doing? I have included the two-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



So the implied has popped today b/c of the news… OK, that makes sense. But what doesn’t make a lot of sense to me is why the volatility is “only” up this much. If we look over the last two-years we can see that the implied hit nearly 140% at one point, and even in the last ear it has been as high as 72.29%. So my question is, why is vol at 62%. Yes the news is out, but it wasn’t expected as far as the option market reflects. Volatility is up on the day, not down. So this looks like a surprise, and if it is, 62% vol??? Hmmm…

Finally, let’s look to the Options Tab.



Across the top we can see not only is Sep vol priced to 63.51%, but Oct and Dec decrease monotonically. In fact, for all expiries out to Jan’15 the volatility decreases monotonically. You mean to tell me that this is a ~49% vol stock in Mar of next year? OK… I would definitely put this one on a watch list. In any case, aside from stock prices and option volatility, let’s hope this drug is in fact all it seems to be and even more. While prevention of illness is the first choice, a treatment (or cure) is needed if prevention falls short.

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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Microsoft (MSFT) - Volatility Explodes, Stock Stays Still After Big Drop on Earnings; This is Not Equilibrium


MSFT closed Monday at trading $31.39, down 1.3% with IV30™ down 1.1%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Microsoft Corporation is engaged in developing, licensing and supporting a range of software products and services. The Company also designs and sells hardware, and delivers online advertising to the customers.

This is an elevated vol note oddly in a huge firm that released earnings, saw a large drop, found an equilibrium and now all of a sudden sees higher volatility than it did pre-earnings. Let's start with the one-year Charts Tab, below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see two phenomena pretty clearly:

(1) Y-O-Y MSFT has risen from $30.74 to now $31.39 - so essentially no move at all.

(2) The last earnings release (the blue "E" icon represents earnings) was not good news. Here's a quick snippet from that release on 7-18-2013:

---
NEW YORK (AP) -- Microsoft stock took a big hit on Friday, after the software giant behind Windows, the Xbox and Surface tablets reported disappointing results for the latest quarter.

The results, which fell below Wall Street's expectations, included a large write-off for Microsoft Corp.'s Surface RT business. A poor reception for Windows 8 contributed to a revenue drop in the company's operating system software unit.

Microsoft "struggled far more than we had expected," said Cowen & Co. analyst Gregg Moskowitz, who downgraded the company's stock to "Neutral" from "Buy," and cut his price target to $33 from $38,

The analyst said in a note to investors that he is "much less confident" that the company can deliver healthy growth in the near future due to the magnitude of the Windows decline, the challenges for Surface, pressure on profit margins and the company's reorganization plans.

Source: AP via Yahoo! Finance, Microsoft shares tumble after weak 4th-qtr results
---

Like I wrote, not good news... but this is a vol note, so let's turn to the one-year IV30™ chart below in isolation.



I've circled both the level of the implied right on earnings (~21%) and the level today. We can see that even though earnings were quite disappointing, the vol dropped (as it normally does) after earnings. The news was digested, the equity value dipped and all seemed back to normal. But after the implied dipped to
17.4% on 8-2-103, it has since exploded up more than 52%, breaching an annual high on Friday. Oddly, the stock has stayed still as it closed at $31.40 the day after earnings and is literally $0.01 lower on Monday's close. So... we have ripping volatility and no stock movement at all.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.



Across the top we can see that Sep vol is priced to 26.53% while Oct is priced to 24.61% and Nov is priced to 25.40%. So for all of those expiries, we're seeing quite elevated levels. So the question is, what's going on with Microsoft? Whatever the answer, the volatility seems to be reflecting the reality that MSFT stock price is not in equilibrium, regardless of the non-existent move since the earnings drop.

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Monday, August 19, 2013

Biodel (BIOD) - Baby Bio-Pharma Set to Explode or Implode Soon; Option Market Points to Huge Upside Potential


BIOD is trading $5.23, up 9.9% with IV30™ up 2.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.




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Biodel Inc., a specialty biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of treatments for diabetes in the United States. The company is involved in developing proprietary formulations of injectable recombinant human insulin for the treatment of patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. It also develops liquid glucagon formulations for use as a rescue treatment for diabetes patients experiencing severe hypoglycemia, or very low concentrations of blood glucose.

This is a volatility note in a $100MM market cap bio-tech with news coming that should be rip roaring one way or the other in terms of enterprise value. The firm has reported $0 in revenue and expenses lie almost entirely in R&D (and some SG&A).

The firm released earnings on Friday, and ZACKS research published a great summary article. Here are some snippets:

---
Biodel Inc. (BIOD) reported third-quarter fiscal 2013 loss of 66 cents per share, wider than the year-ago loss of 52 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents per share.

Biodel did not generate revenues in the reported quarter and also in the year-ago comparable quarter.

-- snip--

Biodel has finished dosing patients in the phase II randomized, open label, parallel group study conducted across approximately 33 U.S. sites. Approximately 132 patients suffering from type I diabetes were randomized to receive either BIOD-123 or Eli Lilly and Company’s (LLY) Humalog as meal-time insulin during the therapy duration of 18 weeks. In the study, the primary endpoint is HbA1c control. The secondary endpoints are postprandial glucose excursions, glycemic variability, hypoglycemic event rates and weight changes.

Biodel expects to report top-line data from the study in the third quarter of calendar 2013.

Meanwhile, Biodel presented encouraging data from a phase I study on its two insulin Lispro-based formulations, BIOD-238 and BIOD-250, at the American Diabetes Association. Both candidates showed a significantly more rapid rate of absorption compared to Humalog and also compared favorably to Humalog where injection site tolerability is concerned.

Source: ZACKS Research via Yahoo! Finance Wider-than-Expected Loss at Biodel
---

My oh my... This company is itself an option. There are a number of binary events which will prove the determining factors in the firm's valuation and solvency. But when we look at the Skew Tab, I see some incredible stuff.




So we can see two phenomena that can't be ignored:

1. The front two months are substantially elevated to the third month.  That's likely driven by this news from the article above: "Biodel expects to report top-line data from the study in the third quarter of calendar 2013."  But, the front two months are sort of jumbled with Sep mostly above Oct, but not entirely.  The option market reflects the likelihood of news in the next two expiries, but a greater likelihood of the "event" in the Sep options cycle.

2. Check out the shape of the skew.  It's incredibly one-sided, or more specifically, upside biased.  The option market reflects substantially greater upside risk (potential) than downside risk.  Said differently, the option market is pricing in good news.  Hmmm...

Let's look to the Charts Tab (one-year) below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



We can see this was a $2.71 stock a year ago, so it has seen substantial appreciation with no revenue.  The equity market likes what it sees in terms of R&D so in that sense the equity and option markets agree.  The upside here is tangible.  On the vol side we can see huge implied now trading over 210%.  As I said, the news that's coming out is priced as though it will affect the enterprise value massively.

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab.



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 214.68% for Sep, 204.70% for Oct and 164.74% for Dec.  So, it's the next two expiries that have this event priced in.  This will be an awesome one to watch. Note that the Sep 11 calls are priced to $0.40 fair value... That's ~120% higher than the current stock price.  Whoa... I also note that the "bankruptcy puts" (the $1 and $2 strikes) are no bid.

For all those in need of this type of medicine, let's hope it's positive results, regardless of equity and option values.

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