tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post916250766330006868..comments2023-10-17T04:02:13.414-04:00Comments on Blog: Vivus (VVUS) - Biotech's Gigantic Vol Yields Arbs on the Table Right NowLivevol Inc.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11212744265528090604noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-63820750545449962612010-07-15T20:43:17.567-04:002010-07-15T20:43:17.567-04:00VVUS FAIL!VVUS FAIL!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-34738555532496971892010-07-15T19:15:07.154-04:002010-07-15T19:15:07.154-04:00funny skew :)funny skew :)Alexeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-47033840042145393752010-07-15T16:55:33.598-04:002010-07-15T16:55:33.598-04:00First, I think you're fine. It should open (h...First, I think you're fine. It should open (hopefully), no problem. Second, skip the lawyer, they can't do anything about it. Save the legal fees in my opinion. Thankfully, I still believe number (1) above; you should be fine in terms of being able to close positions. Good luck to everyone (is that possible?)!Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-67668190104183036072010-07-15T16:42:22.068-04:002010-07-15T16:42:22.068-04:00The news is negative, and as predicted trading is ...The news is negative, and as predicted trading is halted today. But with expiry tomorrow, won't there be some lawsuits if they try to halt trade tomorrow, with the binary event past, and no distinct reason to assume a share price difference between fridays open and mondays?<br /> They would be essentially wiping out all of July's options. A Lot Of Options. Perhaps to the benefit of some, but not me. I did a OI check and Puts outnumber Calls 4 to 3 <br /> (I'm already looking for a lawyer)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04205383865517351813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-35820589833448267822010-07-14T15:45:00.254-04:002010-07-14T15:45:00.254-04:00I see what you're saying. I was thinking that...I see what you're saying. I was thinking that if it's a positive announcement, we may get a 25-30% bump -- because the final decision isn't until Oct. It's at around 12 now, so I am targeting around 15 for the upside. If the announcement is negative, I'm thinking it may get cut in half or more. So 5 or so on the downside.Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-58183466407200233542010-07-14T15:29:31.228-04:002010-07-14T15:29:31.228-04:00The risk there is that the news is definitive and ...The risk there is that the news is definitive and the stock moves hard so all the vol goes out. Buying the back gets you long vega which will hurt the most with a vol crush if those options essentially just turn into parity. Having said that, the stock will "exist" after this decision, so options on it should be worth something; just try to find the ones that will be the ATM rather than $10 in/out the money.Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-67581461904450492992010-07-14T15:25:44.449-04:002010-07-14T15:25:44.449-04:00It seems to me that some very inexpensive calender...It seems to me that some very inexpensive calenders would have tremendous risk/reward. They can be bought for the downside and upside.<br />5's and 15's for example. With opex friday and very high vols in the front month, this seems like a super way to go. What do you think?Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-62756526680385938432010-07-14T14:44:26.867-04:002010-07-14T14:44:26.867-04:00I can't say anythng is definite. Usually, whe...I can't say anythng is definite. Usually, when a big meeting is happening and a decision is pending, these "FDA" stocks halt until the decision is out. But I am NOT sure it wil happen this time.Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-80773263954278531602010-07-14T14:41:46.231-04:002010-07-14T14:41:46.231-04:00will VVUS definitely be halted pre-open tomorrow, ...will VVUS definitely be halted pre-open tomorrow, or only around the time of the vote?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13747515958369321940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-19142772765486855672010-07-14T08:56:36.074-04:002010-07-14T08:56:36.074-04:00Absolutely true; but still a very hard decision.Absolutely true; but still a very hard decision.Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-23210756284680071132010-07-13T21:33:30.674-04:002010-07-13T21:33:30.674-04:00Remember that as the owner of an option, you may d...Remember that as the owner of an option, you may decide to exercise it or to not exercise and let it lapse no matter where the stock price is. The exchanges offer auto exercise as a convenience because they expect you to act rationally, but you may order them to exercise any option you own with contrary exercise instructions.<br /><br />I saw a similar thing with Chiron in the early nineties- halted an hour before the close on expiration Friday with a drug decision pending. Stock last traded 48 but lots of 50 and some 55 calls were exercised.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-74072572388834235192010-07-12T17:23:31.464-04:002010-07-12T17:23:31.464-04:00I don't think that will happen. Hypotheticall...I don't think that will happen. Hypothetically, I guess the auto exercises will be based on the halted price.Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-77023911399110252802010-07-12T17:12:05.263-04:002010-07-12T17:12:05.263-04:00so if stock is halted from Thursday morning till F...so if stock is halted from Thursday morning till Friday close, what are CBOE regulations for settle the option exercising?<br />More generally - is it possible to face more then maximum loss ($15) in this iron condor?Alexeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-8559973664557442532010-07-12T15:57:13.743-04:002010-07-12T15:57:13.743-04:00The stock will almost certainly be halted on Thurs...The stock will almost certainly be halted on Thursday if the FDA is discussing the outcome with the market open. What's even scarier is if the halt goes through Friday's close and then Monday rolls around with all the option exercise decisions made on an unknown outcome. Yikes!Ophir Gottliebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699643319377083669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-17373181312001015102010-07-12T15:53:09.660-04:002010-07-12T15:53:09.660-04:00what happened if stock is halted?
and in what circ...what happened if stock is halted?<br />and in what circumstances it can be halted anyway?Alexeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6073056605276687974.post-92177519209517205762010-07-12T14:25:12.973-04:002010-07-12T14:25:12.973-04:00The vol crush is going to be epic!The vol crush is going to be epic!Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01150288297852995487noreply@blogger.com