Friday, June 28, 2013

Post Market Report: 6-28-13

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Research in Motion (BBRY) - How the Option Market was 'Wrong'; And We Knew It


BBRY is trading $10.75, down 25.8% with IV30™ down 25.4%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.




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This is the final piece to a there part series on BBRY earnings. It is a beautiful example of how the option market "appears" to have totally mis-priced an earnings event -- one that I was crowing about loud enough that Goldie agreed and sold the idea to their customers a day after we published it.

My first post was on Tuesday 6-25-2013 (see below), then on Wednesday 6-26-2013, Reuters publishde this nice piece:
STOCKS NEWS US-BlackBerry option prices seen too low ahead of results

Read the top story...

Here are the first two articles (click on the titles to read the posts):

6-25-213:Research in Motion (BBRY) - Earnings Approach, But is Vol Too Low? Is Obsolescence Still a Possibility?

6-26-2013: Research in Motion (BBRY) - UPDATE: Earnings Vol Falls Again; What's Going on With BBRY Earnings? Now Goldie Sees it too...

The take aways were simple:
1. The original note surrounded a curiously low vol given the event about to take place on 6-28-2013 BMO (i.e. earnings). See the Symbol Sumary from Wednesday, below:



Note the IV30™ level (78%), then read on...

2. For the prior three earnings releases the IV30™ hit 95.51%, 92.44% and 95.90% respectively for Sep-2012, Dec-2012 and Mar-2013.

3. This is a firm that once dominated its market, now doesn't, was trading dangerously close to penny stock status (in stock price not in market cap) and now we are about to see the future unfold. That is not a low risk event.

4. The Jun28 weekly options priced in a $1.70 move in the ATM straddle

5. The Skew was flat -- which was in fact bullish.

Today, the stock has moved more than 100% greater than that straddle value and the move is down -- a lot.

Bottom line, the option market did reflect too little risk (though this is one outcome of a probabilistic measure so there is no "right" or "wrong.") What is certain is the outcome today -- that the stock moved much more than the options reflected and this was not a surprise... At least not to us...


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Pre-Market/Post Market: 6-28-13

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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Post Market Report: 6-27-13

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Arkansas Best (ABFS) - Everything at Once; Vol at Multi-year Highs, Stock at Annual High, Earnings Vol Priced below July Vol


ABFS is trading $19.79, up 2.4% with IV30™ down 1.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Arkansas Best Corporation is a holding company through its subsidiaries is engaged primarily in motor carrier freight transportation. The Company’s principal operations are conducted through its Freight Transportation operating segment, which consists of ABF Freight System, Inc. and other subsidiaries of the Company that are engaged in freight transportation.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan I built in Fidelity. This one hunts for calendar spreads between the front two monthly expiries. I've included the results of the scan below. But, there’s a second and third part to this story – like a multi-year in IV30™ and earnings that are likely in the back month (meaning the depressed vol month). Now, we have a vol story…

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 > 7
IV30™ GTE 30
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

Let’s start with the Skew Tab to examine the month-to-month and line-by-line vols.



We can see pretty clearly how the front month (Jul expiry) is elevated to the second month (Aug expiry). It’s this vol difference that triggered the scan. But there is a lot more going on…

Let’s turn to the one-year ABFS Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see that absolutely explosive price appreciation since 5-1-2013, when the stock closed at $9.73. As of today, the stock is up more than 100% in less than two-months and that level is an annual high.

But, there’s more… a lot more… Let’s turn to an isolated two-year IV30™ chart, below.



There are ebbs and flows, but if we look at the far right hand side, we can see that other than the small dip today, the implied is trading at multi-year highs. So we have a stock up 100% in two-months and vol at multi-year highs and a calendar diff opened up between the front two-months… But there’s more yet…

Last year ABFS released earnings on 4-27-2012 and then on 7-31-2012. That means earnings fell in the Aug expiry and outside of Jul. This year ABFS released earnings on 4-30-2013, which would mean there is a likelihood that the next earnings release will be again be outside of Jul expiry but inside Aug.

Putting that altogether means that the elevated vol in Jul to Aug reflects not only multi-year highs in risk in Jul, but risk that supersedes that found in the earnings release. This is a really compelling coincidence of vol and stock price phenomena.

For completeness, the Options tab is included below.



Across the top we can see that Jul is priced to 81.53% and Aug is priced to 74.14%. Now we wait and see – what’s coming in the next four weeks (i.e. Jul expiry). The option market reflects a lot of risk – more so than in the last two-years.

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 6-27-13

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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Post Market Report: 6-26-13

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Research in Motion (BBRY) - UPDATE: Earnings Vol Falls Again; What's Going on With BBRY Earnings? Now Goldie Sees it too...


BBRY is trading $14.83, up 1.9% with IV30™ down 6.0%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.




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This is a follow up post to the article I wrote yesterday. It's all about earnings and earnings vol and what the heck is going on. You can read the prior post (which I do suggest), by clicking on the title below:
Research in Motion (BBRY) - Earnings Approach, But is Vol Too Low? Is Obsolescence Still a Possibility?

Here are the high points (I guess that implies there were low points?)... Anyway...

1. The above note surrounded a curiously low vol given the event about to take place on 6-28-2013 BMO (i.e. earnings).
2. For the prior three earnings releases the IV30™ hit 95.51%, 92.44% and 95.90% respectively for Sep-2012, Dec-2012 and Mar-2013.

As of yesterday, the BBRY Symbol Summary looked like this (below):



Note that the implied had risen 6.1 vol points and seemed about ready to make its climb to the elevated level  of prior earnings releases -- albeit a little slow to the come.  But then, today happened. Check that Symbol Summary at the very top, the implied is now down 5.1 vol points (down to 78.66%).  That puts IV30™ exactly in the 50th percentile -- so, in English, the implied is "average" for the year, but earnings are not an average time --not even close.

Let's take a look at the IV30™ chart over one-year in isolation, below.



We can clearly see the prior spikes into earnings (the blue "E" icon represents an earnings release date).  Look at the far right hand side -- that's the dip today. Normally I have pretty good grip on what's going on with vol (or so you would hope), but I have to say, I am confounded by this vol level.  I still believe there is a non-trivial (i.e. non-zero) chance that BBRY goes away in a year (or whatever) -- I mean, BBRY v10 better work.

In any case, this is a firm that once dominated the market, now doesn't, was trading dangerously close to penny stock status (in stock price not in market cap) and now we are about to see the future unfold.  That is not a low risk event.

Also fascinating is the Skew.  Check out the Skew Tab, below.



I've included weeklies and monthlies.  Ultimately, the point is, there is now skew.  Vol is flat -- which is not normal.  The upside is priced the same as the downside which is actually bullish.  To read more about skew, why it exists and what it means, you can go here:
Understanding Option Skew -- What it is and Why it Exists

It turns out goldie (GS) has latched onto this story and put out a note to customers to purchase the weekly straddles into earnings -- they too see this vol as uniquely low.  I saw it first!  Just kidding... Well, no I'm not...

I'm not sure the vol is a purchase, and actually, I couldn't say I was even if I was b/c this isn't advice -- but, I have to say, it has been a while since I have been so confused by what the option market reflects into an earnings release.

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 6-26-13

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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Post Market Report: 6-25-13

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Research in Motion (BBRY) - Earnings Approach, But is Vol Too Low? Is Obsolescence Still a Possibility?


BBRY is trading $14.34, up 1.7% with IV30™ up 7.7%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.




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Research In Motion Limited is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software and services, it provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to information, including e-mail, voice, instant messaging, short message service (SMS), Internet and intranet-based applications and browsing.

This is a vol note with earnings approaching -- but it's actually not an elevated vol note, rather, a curiously low vol given the event about to take place on 6-28-2013 BMO (i.e. earnings).

Let's start with the Charts Tab (one-year) below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see that complete reversal and recovery for the firm based on BBRY version 10.  These guys were considered dead in the water -- even I pounded on them on a few occasions when I asked quite literally, if they had become obsolete.  Well, as of this writing the answer would be, no Ophir, they are not.  We can see the stock has risen from an annual low of $6.22 to now well more than 100% higher -- hope springs.

But this is actually a vol note, so let's turn to the one-year IV30™ chart in isolation, below.



First and perhaps most obviously, we can see the abrupt run up in the implied of late as earnings approach with IV30™ rising from 52.93% on 5-24-2013 (so a month ago) to now over 84%.  That's actually pretty normal.  What I find somewhat "abnormal" is the level of the implied right now.  For the prior three earnings releases the IV30™ hit 95.51%, 92.44% and 95.90% respectively for Sep-2012, Dec-2012 and Mar-2013.

If you look back at that isolated IV30™ chart and exclude today -- the implied was in the high 70's.  Now it's popping and my best guess is that it will continue to rise.  The oddity is how long the vol stayed depressed and how quickly it's rising.  Also, as we get further and further into the discovery of how good (or not) BBRY 10 will be, the company's future again is on the line.  If BBRY v10 fails, then we go right back to questions of obsolescence.  It feels like the implied should crack 100% withing a couple days, and if not, then is that vol too low?

Finally, let's turn to the Options Tab for completeness.



Across the top we can see Jul vol is priced to 86.82% and Aug is priced to 75.42% (that vol diff is due to earnings).  Let's see how this plays out -- a mid 80% implied could be a bit low, and a super 100% vol could be too high.  There is a non-trivial chance the vol rips up in the next two days. Ya know, or not...


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Pre-Market/Post Market: 6-25-13

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Monday, June 24, 2013

STEC - Pre-takeover Order Flow Yields Two Types: A Good Speculator and a Possible Cheater


STEC is trading $6.71, up 86.9% with IV30™ down 69.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.




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STEC, Inc. (STEC) is a global provider of enterprise-class Flash-based solid-state drives (SSDs) that are designed for systems and applications that require high input and output (IO). The Company designs and develops its own SSD controllers, enhance them with firmware and integrate them with NAND flash media to manufacture SSDs.

This is an order flow note ahead of a takeover. I’m going to show two types of order flow – one that is incredibly suspicious, another that isn’t. Both made huge paper profits on the takeover news today, but it appears in two different ways.

First the news:
---
Western Digital (WDC) has agreed to acquire sTec (STEC) in a cash deal worth approximately $340 million. Under the terms of the deal, each WDC shareholder will receive $6.85 per share. The deal is expected to close by year end 2013.
Source: AP
---

The background to all of this is critical:

(1) The largest shareholder in STEC made a loud and public push for the firm to sell itself about six-months ago.
(2) The average daily volume in STEC is quite low relative to the trades we will be examining. I have included a snippet of the Trade breakdown section below.



Note the total average daily option volume over the last three-months for STEC is 568 options composed of 454 calls a day and 114 puts a day.

Now, the order flow. First, let’s look at what appears to be innocuous trading, with an intelligent but hedged speculation on a takeover.

Trading #1: Purchase of the Aug 4/5 Call spread

On 6-12-2013, it appears that ~1,400 Aug 4/5 call spreads were purchased for ~$0.15 (various prices). Note that combined, that makes ~ 2,800 options in just that trade, or nearly 5-fold the daily average.

That call spread is now worth full value ($1) and is up ~$119,000.

Notes to this trade:
(1) It was a spread, not a naked call purchase. If someone wanted to use inside information they would not have capped the upside – a naked purchase of the Aug 4 calls for ~$0.25 would be a $350,000 gain, or nearly 3-fold the gain on the spread.
(2) The trade date was 6-12-2013 – about two weeks before the announcement.
(3) The expiry chosen was August, giving the position more time but also costing more – again, not the finger print of a fraudulent trade.

Trading #2: Purchases of the Jul 3 calls naked

On 6-21-2013 (i.e. Friday) it appears that ~1,200 Jul 3 calls were purchased naked (uncovered) for ~ $0.60. Those calls are now worth $3.75 for a $380,000 gain.

Notes to this trade:
(1) The trade date is exactly one day before the deal – suspicious.
(2) The trades are in the front month – suspicious.
(3) The trades are naked (no spread) – suspicious.

In my opinion what we have here is one of three things:

(1) Cheaters all the way around (might even be the same people I both trades)
(2) No cheaters all the way around
(3) A cheater in one but not both of the trades

In my opinion, the spreads look either to be normal speculation on a firm known to be a takeover target or a very savvy trader using insider information knowing full well how to hide the obviousness of the trade.

In my opinion the naked Jul 3 call purchases are highly suspicious and could in fact be circumstantial evidence of malfeasance.

Either way, this is a really interesting examination of order flow pre-takeover.

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Thursday, June 20, 2013

Pre-Market/Post Market: 6-20-13

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Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Post Market Report: 6-19-13

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Hillshire Brands (HSH) - Vol Breaches Highs; Risk Elevates... But Why?


HSH is trading $34.22, up 2.0% with IV30™ up 10.69%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.




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The Hillshire Brands Company (Hillshire Brands), formerly Sara Lee Corporation, is a meat-centric food solutions company. The Company’s portfolio of meat includes Hillshire Farm Deli Select, sausage products and Hillshire Farm Hams.

I found this stock using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for vol gainers on the day. I've included the results of the scan below.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percent Change GTE 10
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200
IV30™ Change GTE 7

Let's look to the Charts Tab (one-year) below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see a rather impressive and sustained up trend for ~10 months, then a bit of a dip off of that peak in May. But, this is really a vol story, so let's look at the one-year IV30™ chart in isolation.



What I note is the incredibly abrupt rise in the implied after the earnings vol crush.  The vol is up more than 50% from that dip after the last earnings release (blue "E" icon) into new annual high territory. The thing is, I don't know why...

Finally, let's turn to the Options tab, below.



Across the top we can see that Jun vol is priced to 40.63% (which is just two and a half days of option value), Jul is priced to 35.19% and Oct is priced to 32.89%.  There should be an earnings release in between July and Oct expiries.  Ultimately, this is an odd one -- vol rising abruptly, but not b/c of an earnings event.  Hmm...

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