Monday, December 31, 2012

Post Market Report: 12-31-12

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 12-31-12

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Friday, December 28, 2012

Post Market Report: 12-28-12

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Northrup Grumman (NOC) - Vol Pushes into New Annual High; Earnings Vol Left Behind. Defense Industry Holding Breath for Fiscal Cliff?


NOC is trading $67.18, down 0.8% with IV30™ up 7.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Northrop Grumman Corporation (Northrop Grumman) provides products, services, and integrated solutions in aerospace, electronics, information and services to its global customers. As of December 31, 2011, the Company operated in four segments: Aerospace Systems, Electronic Systems, Information Systems and Technical Services.

This is an almost identical post to the one I wrote on LMT a couple of days ago. Rising vol to new highs and earnings vol priced below the front. You can read the LMT post here:

Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Vol Reaches New Annual High; Fiscal Cliff Related?

I found NOC using a real-time custom scan. This one hunts for elevated vols.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 20
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated to its own annual history (at least in the 80th percentile). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), and I want a minimum vol level so I don't pick up any boring ETF’s (or whatever). The stock price requirement helps me identify names that have enough strike prices to trade or spread.

The six-month NOC Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see a relatively quiet period with the price moving from $61.73 to now just over $67 in half a year. The 52 wk range in stock price is [$55.38, $70.65].

But this is a vol note, so let’s focus on the IV30™. I have included the six-month implied chart in isolation, below.



The trend is pretty obvious -- up. The vol was trading below 14% in late summer and is now nearly twice that level. The 52 wk range in IV30™ is [13.39%, 24.74%], putting the current level well into new annual high territory.

The story gets even more interesting when we look to the Skew Tab, below.



We can see the shape is normal and quite pretty really, but note how Jan is elevated to Feb. This is odd because the next earnings release for NOC should be in the Feb expiry but outside of Jan. In other words, the vol is topping an annual high today, but the earnings vol is not following suit.

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 27.46% for Jan and 25.10% for Feb. This automatically triggers a thought in my mind to analyze a calendar spread of some sort. Then again, with the implied reaching an annual high right now, selling the font could be a disaster. This will be a very interesting one to watch unfold for sure. I'll quote myself from the LMT post, "If this is fiscal cliff related watch for climbing vol and then a potential vol crush after the news."

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 12-28-12

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Thursday, December 27, 2012

Post Market Report: 12-27-12

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Herbalife (HLF) - Vol Pattern Emerges as Cataclysm has Ended... For Now...


HLF is trading $10.37, up 3.5% with IV30™ down 7.2%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Herbalife Ltd. is a global network marketing company that sells weight management, nutritional supplements, energy, sports and fitness products and personal care products through a network of approximately 2.7 million independent distributors, except in China, where the Company sells its products through retail stores.

For those of you that don't know what's been going on with HLF, suffice it to say the stock was down more than 35% in a few days again when another noted shot-seller bashed the firm on CNBC. Vol exploded to new annual highs and the stock imploded.

I found HLF today stock using a real-time custom scan I built that hunts for calendar spreads between the front two monthly expiries. It turns out, after the disaster of the last few days, the vol has been collapsing of late.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
Sigma1 - Sigma2 > 7
IV30™ GTE 30
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200

The goal with this scan is to identify back months that are cheaper than the front by at least 10 vol points. I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume) and enough strikes to spread and thus a minimum stock price. I also require a minimum vol level in order to avoid any boring ETFs (or whatever).

The six-month HLF Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the cataclysm that was the last few trading days with the stock falling from over $45 to as low as $24.24.

The vol side is even more interesting. The implied absolutely exploded to multi-year highs, reaching as high as 147%, but has recently been falling quickly as the stock has made a small recovery. This unevenness in the vol has created an interesting phenomenon in the skew.

Let's turn to the Skew Tab, below.



We can see how Jan is elevated to Feb, which in many respects make sense -- the uncertainty surrounding the stock price is hype focused on the short-term after that implosion and therefore Jan vol is elevated to the back. We can also see the monotonicity of the vol levels -- they drop as we go back into further out expiries. The Aug vol levels are back to sort of "normal."

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 118.69%, 103.59%, 89.26% and 80.83%. This is an interesting one to examine where owning long-term vega could be offset with spread front month extremely elevated vega, and can be done several months in a row. Of course, if the stock moves huge and the position isn't diagonal, that premium paid could turn into a 100% loser. Just an interesting note I thought was worth checking out.

This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

Pre-Market/Post Market: 12-27-12

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Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Post Market Report: 12-26-12

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Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Vol Reaches New Annual High; Fiscal Cliff Related?


LMT is trading $92.24, down 0.6% with IV30™ up 10.9%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global security and aerospace company principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems and products. The Company also provides a range of management, engineering, technical, scientific, logistic, and information services.

I last wrote about LMT in Nov as a broader piece of the defense sector. You can read that post here:
Defense Sector Risk Rises, Vol Correlations Rise, Election Looms Large

I've included the Symbol Summary from that prior article below as a reference.



I found LMT today stock using the real-time custom scan that hunts for elevated vols. Today it has breached an annual high in the implied.

Custom Scan Details
Stock Price GTE $5
IV30™ GTE 30
IV30™ Percentile GTE 80
Average Option Volume GTE 1,200


The goal with this scan is to identify short-term implied vol (IV30™) that is elevated to its own annual history (at least in the 80th percentile). I'm also looking for a reasonable amount of liquidity in the options (thus the minimum average option volume), and I want a minimum vol level so I don't pick up any boring ETF’s (or whatever). The stock price requirement helps me identify names that have enough strike prices to trade or spread.

The LMT one-year Charts Tab is included (below). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



One the stock side we can see a nice y-o-y return, as this was an $81.32 stock a year ago. The 52 wk range in LMT is [$75.45, $94.74], so the stock is close to that annual high.

But ultimately, this is a vol note. I have included the IV30™ one-year chart in isolation, below.



We can see the that with the spike today the implied has now hit an annual high. In the prior (pre-election) note listed above, I discussed the risk embedded in these companies. What's odd is, the election is over, but the vol is even higher now. This feels very fiscal cliff / budget related. While LMT does have earnings due out either at the end of this expiry or in the beginning of next, the elevated implied feels like it's due to something "else."

Finally, let's look to the Options Tab (below).



Across the top we can see the monthly vols are priced to 23.14% and 22.32% for Jan and Feb, respectively. That Feb expiry earnings mark is just a projection and based on the vols for the front two months, it feels like the date is rather ambiguous. If not, then whatever news is due out in this expiry trumps earnings and has pushed vol to a new annual high. If this is fiscal cliff related watch for climbing vol and then a potential vol crush after the news.

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 12-26-12

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Monday, December 24, 2012

Post Market Report: 12-24-12

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Pre-Market/Post Market: 12-24-12

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This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

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Friday, December 21, 2012

Post Market Report: 12-21-12

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Herbalife (HLF) - Short Seller Smashes Stock Again; But Reaction to Ackman is Different than Einhorn


HLF is trading $27.49, down 18.4% with IV30™ up 67.3%. The LIVEVOL® Pro Summary is below.



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Herbalife Ltd. is a global network marketing company that sells weight management, nutritional supplements, energy, sports and fitness products and personal care products through a network of approximately 2.7 million independent distributors, except in China, where the Company sells its products through retail stores.

So this is obviously a stock and vol note. In fact, this is day two of a cataclysmic decline in stock price and rise in vol for HLF and is all based on comments made by noted short seller Bill Ackman.

I've included the Symbol Summary for HLF as of three days ago, then yesterday, then today one more time, below:









So, the stock has dropped from $42.50 to now $27.49 in four days as the implied has exploded from ~52% to now ~150%. In terms of the content behind Ackman's analysis, I suggest reading the two posts below -- it's pretty nasty but feels very factual. Both of these articles are provided by The Motley Fool.

Bill Ackman's Analysis on Herbalife (Part I)

Bill Ackman's Analysis on Herbalife (Part II)

Let's turn to the one-year Charts Tab below. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue vs HV180™ - pink).



On the stock side we can see the abrupt drop of late, well into a new annual low and in fact, well into a new multi-year low. What I also note is that abrupt drop in early May -- the stock fell from $70.32 on 4-29-2012 to $46.20 just four days later. That drop was keyed off of questions from another noted short seller, David Einhorn. So, in English, this is the second time the stock has catapulted down after well known fund managers have questioned HLF's management. The issues have primarily been the distribution channel and pricing through that channel.

I do note that once the stock fell off of Einhorn's comments (or lack of comments?), the stock did not ever recover to pre-comment levels -- it has hovered at that lower level until... well until the last four days.

I've included the one-year vol chart below.



We can see this time that things are different. The stock decline for both has been ~35%, but the vol has absolutely exploded this time around. After Einhorn's comments the implied was just under 100% at its peak (closing value). Today we see an implied well over 150%.

Finally, let's tun to the Options Tab, below.



We can see the monthly vols are priced to 154.05%, 134.14% and 111.86% for Jan, Feb and May, respectively. While the option market obviously reflects higher vol in the near-term -- that vol is elevated well into May. This time around it feels like the option market reflects not just the risk of a downside move (further), but perhaps the risk of HLF going away as a going concern.

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